Friday 12th April 2013

Yesterday turned out to be a decent day after all. A bit of excitement in the evening was an added bonus as the internet feeds from Houston were down due to a storm. The only updates for many of the matches were coming from the tournament’s twitter account. Bet365 showed that the Verdasco match hadn’t started yet Twitter gave an update that Verdasco was 3-0 down. The price hadn’t moved and Verdasco was available to lay at 1.36 . Whilst it was risky relying on a twitter account claiming to be from the tournament organisers I figured that even if it was fake and the match hadn’t started the prices were still at SP. I didn’t go crazy with the lays but as another update gave Hidalgo a 5-2 lead and the price was still pretty static I laid some more. Betfair’s page finally started to show the scores but I suspect they were getting their information from the same source as I was! The market eventually accepted that the updates were correct and for a relatively small risk I secured a healthy 3 figure profit.

 

Vinci had a poor start to her last match and Bertens was playing great tennis. In the second set Vinci decided she had to be more aggressive and the tactic paid off. Today she plays Karolina Pliskova who beat Kanepi in the last round. She served well but even a below par Kanepi was able to create 11 break points. She only took 2 of them but I’d have expected Vinci to have a much higher conversion rate in the same situation.

I’d expect the Vinci slice to give Pliskova a few problems. Kanepi’s returns were fairly predictable which made her opponent’s task that bit easier.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see either 3 sets or 2 very tight ones but I will be favouring Vinci. I prefer to have my money on players who fight to the end.

Hopefully we get a higher entry price than the SP of 1.50 early in the match. 1.80+ will get my interest.

 

Wawrinka made a terrible start to his last match and lost the opening set. he starts today against Garcia Lopez at 1.13 . GGL has found a little form this week after a pretty lean period. If Stan can be taken to 3 sets by Kavcic you’d have to fancy Garcia lopez to raise that price a little higher in the first set. He has beaten Wawrinka twice before on clay.

Worth a lay at that price.

    Trading Guide

3 thoughts on “Friday 12th April 2013”

  1. Hello Tradeshark, yesterday Anderson must have reached 1.80 on the very first game right? I only managed to place the bet you tipped when he was winning 3-1 and I was thinking how could it possibly reach that price if he won 6-3, 6-3?!

    Now I see he lost the first game to love, still the odd went skyrocket just for losing a non-serve game! A true gold mine, pity I couldn’t take it 😛

    1. Yes his price went to 1.81 after the first game. So many favourites have lost this week that people are almost expecting it every match. Anderson broke shortly after that and the price never got near 1.70 again.

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