Stosur and Kuznetsova cost me a bit yesterday. By the time I accepted that Stosur was going to keep playing ok and Kuz was going to continue playing like an idiot I was in a hole. Thankfully Errani/Hantuchova and especially Kvitova/Petrova more than made up the loss.
The Gaquet lay had got the day off to an excellent start so I ended in a healthy position.
If conditions are very windy Sharapova can struggle as much as anyone on serve. If the wind is blowing it could be worth laying her at 1.19 . Stosur might gain some confidence from her much needed win yesterday but I think there have been more bad days than good for the Aussie and if things start going against her I expect her to fold.
Nalbandian made a terrible start in his first match of the year. He went a double break down to Jorge Aguilar and whilst he pulled it back and took the set 7-5 he then lost the second. It was a better performance in his next match where he beat Pella in straight sets.
Almagro has won the title in Brazil for the past 2 years and also won in 2008. He also made a slow start to the week as he needed 3 sets to get past Capdeville in the last round. That’s not unusual for Almagro though as he often needs a decent player on the other side of the net before he finds the motivation to raise his game.
Nalbandian leads the head to heads 3-2 and won their last 2 matches but they haven’t played for over 2 years.
I expect both players to be up for this one and Almagro’s starting price of 1.40 is a little low bearing in mind that this is just his second match since the Australian Open. I do expect him to take the win though and will be looking for a higher price to get on him. Anything above 1.70 will do nicely.