Friday 20th July

It felt like a long day yesterday. Games in Sweden were pretty much completely rained off. Most ATP favourites struggled but came through to win the set in the end. Then we had the bore-fest that is Atlanta with a schedule full of big servers with little or no clue how to return.

Let’s see if today is any better.

 

The three 9am games in Sweden are all included in my punting tips so I won’t duplicate them here although they all look good for trades.

 

Monaco has had some problems this week. I have never seen him broken so many times by a lower ranked player. Like all the top players though he doesn’t panic when he’s behind. He leads the head to heads 4-1 against Chardy. Monaco reached the final last week so maybe he has been trying to conserve some energy in the early rounds. He knows he won’t be able to do that against Chardy who has been playing excellent tennis. If Chardy can avoid his usual lapses in concentration he has a chance to push Monaco close. Hopefully Monaco’s problems on second serve continue in the opening games and I will be laying him from the start.

Update: Monaco won 6-3, 7-5.

 

Lopez and Bellucci should throw up a few price swings for us. Both players came back from a set down in the last round. I’d say Bellucci is a little more consistent at the moment but there really isn’t a great deal in it. His price of 1.50 looks too low. He is the better clay courter though. Clay isn’t Lopez’ favourite surface as it slows his big serve down but he has enough quality in his ground strokes to keep this close. I’ll be starting with a lay at 1.50 although warily as Lopez has won just 1 opening set from his last 7 matches. Bellucci to win in the end.

Update: Bellucci won 6-3, 6-3.

 

Almagro beat Kohlschreiber in this event last year. They have played just once since then with Kohlschreiber getting a little revenge on the hard courts in January.

Kohlschreiber started poorly against Fognini in the last round but once he found his timing he controlled the match. He’s having a great season and is playing with a lot of confidence. Almagro had some shoulder injury issues last week in his first match in Sweden but came through them and reached the final.  He’s had no real dramas this week (yet) and starts as favourite at 1.65 . That’s a fair starting price which means it offers no value. Motivation is difficult to gauge this week. Tipsarevic looked like he didn’t really care that he was losing by a set and a break yet he fought back to win in 3 sets. Sometimes its easy to look for reasons why a player won’t be putting 100% into a match and this week it is the Olympics thats getting traders jumpy. However I am assuming that both these players want to win this one and will be waiting for a higher price on Almagro to back him. An early break for Kohlschreiber would be perfect.

Update: Almagro won 7-5, 7-5.

    Trading Guide

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