Friday 21st September 2012

Seppi starts as favourite against Florian Mayer. Mayer has been playing really well in recent weeks and had his first win over Blake in the last round.

Seppi has improved his hard court game over the last 18 months but in the more recent tournaments his form has dipped.

Mayer’s consistency is rarely long lived but when he’s hot he’s hot. I will be laying Seppi if his price drops to 1.50 to hopefully trade  out after the first set.

 

Monfils again started slowly when he went a break down to Mahut last night. Mahut looked like he was going to take the set but then his game turned to mush. Monfils pulled it back to a tie break which he won.

Today Monfils comes up against Kohlschreiber. He has a very strong track record against the German and leads the head to heads 6-1.

Kohlschreiber wasn’t overly impressive against Paire in the last round and lost the second set 1-6. I think this is perhaps his best chance to secure a second win over Monfils and 3 sets are not out of the question. Will Monfils start a third consecutive match by being broken? We have no way to know but he has had 2 games to get back into the swing of things and whilst he will almost certainly trade higher I think he will take this. Once his serve has got going in both previous matches he has served well.

Monfils at 1.80 to 1.90 seems like a good entry.

 

Laura Robson’s great form continued yesterday with a 3 sets win over Peng.  She didn’t have things all her own way in that one and was broken serving for the first set.  She broke back to take it.

Having been broken in the second set Robson pulled level but couldn’t quite get the break through and Peng won a further late break to get to 1 set all.  Robson seems to like playing third sets and she won this one easily.

Cirstea played well to beat Cornet comfortably in straight sets.  and starts as underdog on Betfair. Robson’s price of  1.60 is way too short and should be nearer evens. Value for a straight bet is on Cirstea. For trading I think a lay of Robson is a good place to start as she will almost certainly trade odds against.

Have to give a slight edge to Cirstea  to win in 3 sets although I hope Robson takes it.

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