Due to start at 11 am
Rublev 1.84, Basilashvili 2.18
Basilashvili won their only previous meeting. That was in January this year on a hard court in Doha. He won in straight sets. Their 12 month results are pretty even but Rublev has better results this season. His clay results are also a little better.
Basilashvili won this title last season. He beat Alex Zverev in the semi final. Basilashvili was a set and break up but Zverev looked like he was going to pull off another great escape. He fought back to take the 2nd set with a late break of serve. Basilashvili took a 3-0 lead in the deciding set but Zverev fought back again taking the next 5 games. Basilashvili saved 2 match points in the next game and broke the Zverev serve in the next game for 5-5. In the tie break Zverev led 5-2 but Basilashvili took 5 points in a row for a great win.
Rublev beat Dominic Thiem in the quarter final. Thiem is the defending champion next week in Austria and probably had one eye on that tournament. In the semi final Rublev lost the opening set to Pablo Carreno Busta. He took an early break lead in the next set but consecutive breaks of his own serve put him a set and a break behind. He did break back 3 games later and another break gave him the set. The 3rd set was very one sided and went to Rublev 6-1.
Stats for the tournament favour Basilashvili. This should be a very tight match. We have a good chance of seeing 3 sets. Lay Rublev around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.20. Lay the set 1 winner. I think Basilashvili probably wants this a little more and I give him the edge to win.
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