Getting the Most from the Daily Trading Advice Emails

Often there are a LOT of matches to cover so I try to be as concise as possible. Obviously if I am TOO concise people can miss some of the info thats included.

Here is a list of things that could be included with a short explanation just in case the meaning isn’t clear. I was going to do this as a video blog but thought it might be a little confusing and a written post can more easily be referred to later.

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OC Predict:

I download the day’s matches using On Court software. I have entered my own settings and the software gives an over all prediction for the match but I don’t always take much notice of this figure.  I didn’t used to leave this figure in but forgot to remove it a couple of times and was asked by a few people to leave it in as they DID find it useful.

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WaS:

This shows the selection from my Wins a Set List.  Pretty straight forward. “X” marks the selection but note that if it shows as “X.”  (x dot)  that means I have over ridden the selection given by my automated rules.

These selection can be useful to indicate who will start the match best in closely priced matches. Alternatively, if the selected player loses set 1 we can lay the set winner in set 2. Then remove liability if our player takes a break lead in set 2.

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Rank and Surface Rank are self explanatory.

Pin shows the Pinnacle price so it can be compared with the Betfair price and my own price for the match.

BF shows the Betfair price at the time I compile the info. if the price moves significantly throughout the morning I try to update these as I add my comments.

TS:

This is my opinion of what I would have expected the price to be.  It factors in a lot of things including my  pricing model, injury concerns, fatigue concerns and my personal experience.

This is useful for spotting value if the TS price is compared to the actual BF price.

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Comments:

Here I give all other info that I see as relevant. I show their most recent meeting including how many sets they played. Note if I write “straight sets” then the match was best of 5 sets. If I wrote “3 sets” for this one it would give a false impression of it being a close match. In the same way if I write ” 3 sets” then it was best of 3 sets.

In an attempt to keep the comments as short as I can I will not show great detail in the stats. I check a lot of statistics for each match and from those I build an opinion on how the match will go.  Remember I am also using my new player comparison factor selection process while building this opinion.

If I say a player is value then basically I mean that they are expected to trade lower than their start price.  That obviously doesn’t necessarily mean that they will win the match but that I expect them to perform more strongly than the market price suggests. If we get a decent price move in our favour then it is advisable to reduce or remove our liability.

I usually give my opinion of who will win the match but if I really don’t have a strong feeling towards either player then I will say so.

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I do this for every ATP and WTA match in the main draws.  I will occasionally cover qualifying rounds if the number of main draw matches is low but as liquidity is usually poor I see little point in doing this very often..

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