Heineken Open – Tuesday night

22:00 – Ferrero v Lammer

 

Ferrero is ranked 23. Lammer has no ranking. They have never met.

 

Lammer is unlikely to trouble Ferrero. If he’s quick Ferrero can tie up the first set in time for us to move onto the next match at 11:00.

 

He lost his last 3 matches in 2009 so he’ll be keen to get back to a wiinning habit. His price is too low for a Back The Server strategy. If we’re lucky he will be asleep during the first service game to give Lammer chance to break. That would get Ferrero’s price to a more respectable backing level.

 

You could watch the opening games and if Lammer doesn’t look likely to take the Spaniard close back Ferrero and green up either after Ferrero breaks or at the end of the first set.

 

Update: Lammer got an early break and was leading 3-1 when Monaco went over on his ankle. He called for the trainer and received treatment.  He tried continue but after a couple of point it was clear he couldn’t continue and he retired.

 

As the first set wasn’t completed all bets on betfair were voided. That was a disappointment to some people in the chatroom as they were already green and came as a relief to others who had  backed Monaco.

 

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23:00 – Kohlschreiber v Bellucci

 

Rankings are 27 and 34. They have never met.

 

They are pretty even on betfair with Bellucci a slight favourite. I’d agree with that and this looks like a much better prospect for traders compared with the first match.

 

Both men had easy first round matches. Bellucci reached the quarter finals in Brisbane which is why he is slight favourite today.

 

Kohlschreiber wins 82% of his service games ( going from last seasons stats). Bellucci wins 78%. Break points saved are both in the 60%’s.

 

Games won against serve are 24% for Kohlschreiber and 19% for Bellucci.

 

I’d say going on the stats alone that Kohlschreiber is favourite but at this early stage of the season match practice is possibly worth more.

 

Watch the opening service games to see who has settled quicker and back them on their next service games. As the prices are very even a break or potential break will bring about a large movement in the price. For that reason you need to be very careful about staying in a game too long if it looks like it could go against you. Even after a break of serve you will have sufficiently high prices to make them worth backing.

 

Be careful also of using 15-40 against Kohlschreiber.

 

Tough to pick a winner. We have seen what early form Bellucci is in. We have only seen one match from Kohlschreiber which he won convincingly. If its a tight match  Kohlschreiber has the experience to outwit his opponent.

 

Update: Very nervy first set. Kohlschreiber held the opening game to love and then immediately broke serve to lead 2-0. Both players then seemed incapable of stringing 2 decent serves together with most games going to 40-40.

 

Kohlschreiber was 3-1 up and after many deuces he seemed to have won the game. We were only trading from a scoreboard and I assume there was a disputed line call as the score was changed back to 3-1, 40-40. Bellucci then went on to break serve for 2-3.

 

He must have relaxed a little thinking he had done the hard work and Kohlschreiber broke back to love.

 

Bellucci again broke serve to trail 4-5 on his own serve but after another break by Kohlschreiber the set was over.

 

I think most people in the chatroom had a green screen and I went to bed!

 

Kohlschreiber won 6-4, 6-1.

    Trading Guide