Indian Wells 2012, 11th March

Kerber v King:

Both players are having a good season. Kerber has won 8 of her last 10 matches and won a title in February.

King has won 7 of her last 10 matches. She reached the third round in the Oz Open and the quarter finals in Pattaya. This week she has beaten Errani and an out of form Pavlyuchenkova although in that match she made a terrible start and was 3-0 down in the opening set before she got going.( which was great for trading! ).

Kerber starts at 1.62 but I think this will be quite close. I have them more even on current form and feel that Kerber is perhaps 20 ticks too short.  As its hard to pick a winner I may start with a lay on Kerber and hope it remains close for a few games so that the market corrects its position.

If it goes to 3 sets I give kerber a slight edge.

Update: King pulled out before the match.


F Lopez v Baghdatis:

Baghdatis leads the head to heads 2-1 and won their most recent match which was in Rotterdam last year. He has won both their hard court matches.

Lopez doesn’t have a good record in this tournament. In the last 8 years he has won just 3 matches. He starts as underdog today but if he can serve well he will keep it close. Baghdatis is playing decent tennis but will need to match Lopez’ serve. The value is certainly on Lopez as this will be close with just 1 break between them in each set.

Baghdatis has already had a match on these courts and this could give him an advantage.

The first player whose serve breaks down will find themselves in trouble.

Slight edge to Baggy for me.

Update: More breaks than I expected. Baghdatis won 6-3, 6-4.

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