Indian Wells 2013 – Men’s Semi Finals

You get the feeling that Berdych doesn’t believe he can beat Nadal. He talks about how his own playing style can give Federer problems but that Nadal’s leftie game with lots of spin isn’t so easy to figure out.  He hopes to “one day” work out a way to hurt the Spaniard on a tennis court.

Nadal is certainly in Berdych’s head and has won their last 12 matches. Head to heads are 13-3. His starting price of 1.53 is the highest we have seen for this match up. The price is partly due to Berdych’s recent form and partly to do with people not knowing if Nadal’s knee is anywhere near 100%.

Against Anderson I felt Berdych looked second  best in the opening set but Anderson just couldn’t take any of the break points he earned. In  both sets Berdych broke at 5-4 and must have considered himself a little fortunate. Today’s opponent won’t be as forgiving with the break points.

I have been impressed with Nadal and whilst I expect Berdych to put up more of a fight than Federer did I see Nadal going through to the final.

Update: Nadal took the first set. In the second Berdych broke for a 5-3 lead. His lack of belief showed itself and he lost the next 4 games.

Nadal won 6-4, 7-5.


Djokovic had an easy quarter final but he will have to work harder tonight. He leads the head to heads 8-2 and has won their last 4 matches. Del Potro’s only proper win was at  this year’s Olympics. The other was due to Djokovic retiring in a Davis Cup tie.

I expected Murray to be able to deal effectively with Del Potro’s serve but the Brit was well below the standard we expect. Tonight I again expect the favourite to get the better of the big man’s serve and hope I aren’t disappointed for a second time.

Del Potro is playing very close to his best but it won’t be enough. His serve may keep him in the opening set and give us a slightly better price than the 1.17 SP but I only see one winner.

Update: He did it again. Del Potro came back from a set down to take the match.

Del Potro won 4-6, 6-4, 6-4.

    Trading Guide

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