Indian Wells 2013 – week 1, Friday

I wasn’t at my best last night. I can’t really put my finger on it but I know the signs. I was getting annoyed with the players as I built up profit on matches only to stay in for one more hold and of course they were easily broken. 1 step forward and 1 step back sums up my night. Maybe it was a little due to complacency as the last 3 or 4 days have been exceptional. I had been reading games almost faultlessly in play. I remember thinking when I got up that I was due a bad day so maybe subconsciously I made it happen. Hopefully thats out of my system.

 

The market undervalued Larsson in her first round match with Babos but she came through in 3 sets. She has only played Pavlyuchenkova once before which was in 2010. She won in straight sets on a hard court.

Her win over Babos broke a run of 3 first round defeats.

Pavlyuchenkova’s run in the Malaysian Open where she reached the semi finals brought to an end her own sequence of first round exits. She hasn’t had the easiest of draws but I have been disappointed that her “new” improved serve hasn’t held together when the pressure has increased.

Pavlyuchenkova starts as strong favourite at 1.36 and I feel that will almost certainly trade higher. If she plays at her very best she has the ability to dominate Larsson. If Larsson has gained a little confidence from her first round win and really fights then she can keep it competitive.

Update: Great way to start the session! From the start of the match Pavlyuchenkova was struggling. She was broken in the first game but broke straight back. Larsson brok again for a 5-4 lead but couldn’t serve out the set. However she broke once again for a 6-5 lead and this time held serve to take the set.

Larsson went a double break up at the start of the second set and broke again in the 7th game to take the match.

larsson won 7-5, 6-1.

 

Jankovic has won 5 of her last 6 matches with Kuznetsova and has won their last 3 matches on hard courts. However Kuznetsova has had a new lease of life this season and starts as favourite at 1.53 .

Kuznetsova reached the quarter finals of the Australian Open and the third round in Doha. She wasn’t very happy that she wasn’t given a wild card entry to the main draw in Dubai as she lives there. She made it through the qualifying rounds but lost in the first round of the main draw to Vinci. Her level of play wasn’t quite as high as we had seen in the previous weeks.

She won her first match this week quite convincingly against Hlavackova.

Jankovic chose to travel to Colombia and won the title on the clay in Bogota. She has had time since then to get used to the hard courts and whilst her form is often hard to predict I feel she is in with a decent chance tonight.

I would prefer to lay Kuznetsova lower than SP but anything below 1.30 will be acceptable. I think we will see a tight match with a few swings in price but its hard to predict the final winner.

Update: I missed the first few points and ended up laying around 1.50 . Jankovic finally broke and went on to take the set 6-0. I felt there must be something wrong with Kuznetsova and fully expected her to retire after that first set. When she hadn’t retired and the second set started I hedged the profit.

Kuznetsova broke in the second game and went on to take a 4-1 lead. She closed out the set.

The third set went with serve until Jankovic served at 5-6 when she was broken.

Kuznetsova won 0-6, 6-1, 7-5.

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3 thoughts on “Indian Wells 2013 – week 1, Friday”

  1. Kvitova @1.08 also has the potential to trade a lot higher in play.

    She’s actually lost the last couple she started in this price range.

    It’s a cheap lay.

  2. Thanks, good call on Pav. Yes, always difficult to access exactly what’s happening with a 6-0 set without live pictures. Well done for trading out in the second.

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