Indian Wells 2013, week 1 – Wednesday

Today we get the first main draw matches in the WTA tournament. The men’s qualification stages will be completed  today too. The qualifying rounds have actually had reasonable liquidity although it has come into the markets once the matches have started. More suited to swing trades but still very tradeable.

 

Halep has retired from 2 events recently. She withdrew from the qualifying rounds in Dubai and also during her match with Ivanovic in Doha.

Lauren Davies is playing on home soil and has had a decent start to 2013. She reached the quarter finals in Hobart where she lost to Sloane Stephens in 3 sets and last month she won the ITF tournament in Midland (USA) on indoor hard courts.

Davies’ price of 1.70 is a little lower than it would be if  Halep was fully fit but I think its worth a part stake on Davies from the start with a view to adding the rest above 2.10 .

Update: Its good to see Halep’s back is feeling better 😉

Davies’ price dropped to 1.50 pre match and had to be a lay from the start. Halep took the set 6-2. She won the second 6-0. What a bizarre match up!

Extra update: I just noticed I spelled her name wrong. I was tipping Davies, not Davis. So “technically” I wasn’t wrong 😉

 

Pennetta and Schiavone is a match a lot of people will be looking forward to. In reality this is unlikely to provied us with quality tennis. Betfair has them at evens which is understandable. Both are former top 10 players and both are more known for their clay court achievements than their hard court game.

Schiavone’s form has been pretty bad recently even on the dirt courts. She exhibited a real lack of confidence in South America although still managed to reach the quarter finals

Pennetta is back on the tour after injury and made an expected unspectacular return as she looked to regain some match fitness and also a feel for playing competitively again.

Schiavone leads the head to heads 4-2 although Pennetta’s 2 wins came in their last 2 matches. They haven’t played for over 2 years.

I will be going with Schiavone simply because I feel Pennetta will need another couple of tournaments to get anywhere near her usual level. I won’t be using big stakes though as Schiavone is always capable of “dumbing down” her game to suit her opponent.

Update: Schiavone won 7-5, 6-1.

 

The majority of the other matches can genuinely go either way and watching the pattern of play via the scoreboards will give some insight into which players are better on the day. Remember the better value your entry point is, the less pressure you will feel to get out of a trade early.

    Trading Guide

2 thoughts on “Indian Wells 2013, week 1 – Wednesday”

  1. Davis’ starting price is too low for me. I’m inclined to think she will hit 2.20 at some stage and that would be my minimum entry point.

    Davis has a high probability of 3 setters, around 49% in the last 12 months and 70% in her last 10 matches.

    So, if Halep is half fit and doesn’t retire, there’s a reasonable chance this will be close with good odds on both players.

    Not sure on Halep’s injury update, lower back I think and I guess explains the prices, as Davis SP is shorter than expected.

    1. All good points Steve 🙂
      Yes it was a lower back problem. I think they are pretty even if you take the possible injury issue out of the equation. A lower back problem can cause doubt in a player’s mind long after its healed and i feel its just too soon for her to be over that.

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