We’ve got some interesting matches this evening.
Will Simon’s lucky streak continue? I don’t remember seeing a player serve so badly and yet still manage to notch up victories. He was 5-1 down in the third set against Lorenzi but scraped through due to his opponent being unable to hold his game together. Against Paire he would have posisbly had more luck from the service line if he had closed his eyes.
Today’s opponent is Anderson who relies heavily on his serve although his all-round game improved greatly last year. He has lost just 1 set so far which was to David Ferrer. Simon should find it very difficult to break unless he plays his best tennis. He has shown no signs of that so far. If the Frenchman continues to struggle in his own service games he faces an almost impossible task today.
As ever Anderson’s SP doesn’t offer a lot of value and I will be hoping to back the South African above 1.80.
Its not often that we have seen Nadal at a starting price of 1.28 against a player outside the top 50. His opponent is 67th ranked Gulbis who has improved his discipline in recent weeks and has been showing some of the natural ability that we always knew he had.
In Gulbis’ last match that discipline almost evapourated when an unpire’s decision went against him. He was leading 5-2 in the opening set but lost the next 5 games. At the end of the set he went off court to compose himself. As the second set started he struggled in his opening service game but held himself together. He managed to take the match for what had looked like an unexpected victory after that opening set meltdown.
Nadal has won al 4 of their previous meetings but as the former world number 1 is not yet at his best Gulbis won’t have a better opportunity to get his first win. Three of the four matches went to 3 sets.
Nadal will take any opportunity to get inside Gulbis’ head as he knows he has a tough opponent today. I think it will be a close one and a good indication of where each player is in their ongoing improvement.
I think a lay of Nadal below 1.2 is worth a go. I would love to see Gulbis get the win today.