20:00 – Wickmayer v Bartoli
Rankings are 25 and 17. Head to heads are 2-0 to Bartoli.
Bartoli has the higher rank and has never lost to Wickmayer yet Wickmayer is slight favourite on Betfair at 1.83 . Over the past year they have posted very similar stats on serve and also on return of serve. However if you look at the stats for just this tournament then Wickmayer has earned the favourite tag. She has held serve 75% of the time to Bartoli’s 57%. Bartoli’s return stats are slightly better although Wickmayer has converted significantly more of her break points.
Its a concern that Wickmayer has never taken a set from Bartoli. Something that favours Wickmayer is the fact that Bartoli doesn’t handle the heat very well. In her last match she felt sick and the doctor gave her a tablet.
I think the improvement this week in Wickmayer’s form will enable her to take her first set from Bartoli and that we will see a 3 set match.
Lay the winner of the first set.
Their previous 4 sets were all very close. Three of them were 6-4 and the other was 7-5 so Wickmayer was never far behind. I think she will take this in 3 sets.
Update: Wickmayer allowed the occasion to get to her. Her serve was poor, especially the second serve.
She lost the first set but broke serve immediately in the second. Unfortunately she wasn’t able to hold her own serve.
Bartoli won 6-2, 6-3.
22:00 – Wawrinka v Federer
Rankings are 14 and 2. Head to heads are 8-1 to Federer. Wawinka’s only win was on clay.
Its so hard to go against Fed and especially with an 8-1 head to head. Stan has been in his shadow probably more than the rest of the players and whilst you migh think that he should know Federer’s game inside out the truth is that he probably feels inferior.
Wawrinka lost the opening set against Berdych and Davydenko but it goes without saying he won’t have that luxury today.
I really don’t think Wawrinka believes he can beat his Swiss colleague. He has won just 3 of the 21 sets that they have played.
Federer starts at 1.27 which is too low to back from the start. You can wait to see if Wawrinka can get an early break of serve ( which isn’t that unusual for Fed ) before backing Federer at the higher price.
Alternatively use the set betting market. Federer 2-0 can be backed at 1.78 . Green up after the first set.
Update: No surprises here. Wawrinka had 2 break points in the very first game but that was the last time he was ahead in the match. Fed came back to hold and then broke serve the next game.
Federer won 6-3, 6-4.