Indian Wells – Qualifying rounds, 6th March

Last night’s WTA qualifying games proved to be very profitable. The chatroom was a little quiet so people missed a trick. A lot of excellent price swings. Judging by the scoring patterns though it is probably just as well we didn’t have any live streams as the tennis appeared to be pretty poor.

Lets hope for more of the same tonight. Liquidity wasn’t too bad although once we got to 1am to 2am I think most traders had gone to bed as the volumes dropped right off.

Some tricky match-ups today. Value will, as usual, present itself inplay.


Dancevic is back on court after his childish retirement from a Challenger in Germany when he 2 match points down in the third set of his quarter final match. He was probably tired from all the travelling he had done prior to that match but that incident didn’t show him in a good light.

Today he plays higher ranked Bruges-Davi from Spain.  Bruges-Davi has improved his ranking from around 380 12 months ago to his current 153.  He has actually dropped 18 places since lat November which is an indication of his more current form.

Dancevic has the better record but struggles against left handers winning just 1 from his last 6 when playing a leftie. If Bruges-Davi had shown just a little more form it would be worth laying Dancevic but I think the price is a reaction to the Canadians behaviour in his last match.

1.71 seems a decent price on him.

Update: easy win for Dancevic  6-3, 6-0.


Rajeev Ram shouldn’t have too many problems getting past claycourter Navarro. Home advantage gives him a further edge. 1.52 is borderline value so I’d wait a few games and grab a higher back price.

Update:  Ram won 6-4, 6-2.


James Ward will try to add a rare British presence in the main draw. His first hurdle is Maxime Authom from Belgium. Ward has had a woeful 2012, not helped by a knee injury that forced him out of a Challenger event in January. He hasn’t won a match since then and has only won a single set.

Since last year’s US Open he has played 5 matches where he started as favourite  with a price between 1.50 and evens. He won just 1 of those matches.

I think its worth a lay on the Brit.

Update: Best and easiest trade of the night. Authon won 6-1, 6-2.


Second round of qualifying for the women and Razzano takes on Kristina Barrois.

Barrois came through a tough 3 setter with Rezai last night losing the opening set with a poor tie break even though she had served well in the set and had forced a number of break point chances. Rezai made a few more errors after that and Barrois continued to serve well to take the third set 6-1.

Razzano also served well to beat Lucic in straight sets. There were slight concerns over her fitness going into that match as she had retired from her second round qualifying tie a couple of weeks ago in Dubai.

Razzano has won both their previous matches with the last one being in Dubai last month. that was the match before she retired injured. It went to 3 sets with Razzano taking the first.

Apart from her tie break yesterday Barrois seemed to be pretty solid on serve ( no live video but she was holding comfortably). Her return game seemed to be the weak link in that first set and she will need to improve that if she is to trouble Razzano.

I think we will see either 2 close sets or a 3 setter and Razzano’s consistency will bring her through.


    Trading Guide

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