19:00 – Nadal v Ljubicic
Rankings are 3 and 26. Head to heads are 5-1 to Nadal.
Nadal isn’t quite back to his best but he’s getting there.
Ljubicic has played extremely well this week but went missing during the first set against Monaco and looked as though he wasn’t interested. If he does the same in this match he won’t get a second chance.
Nadal starts at 1.17. Way too low to think about backing him. A lot of traders will be laying Nadal in the hope that Ljubicic can keep it close in the opening set.
I really can’t see any other result than a Nadal win but Ljubicic may have a chance of taking an early break.
Lay Nadal from the start. Green out if Ljubicic breaks and hedge for the small loss if Nadal breaks first.
Update: Nadal took the first set and seemed to be well in control. Ljubicic then broke late in the 2nd set and held on to level the match.
In the deciding set they exchanged breaks of serve and ended up in a tie break.
Ljubicic won the match 3-6, 6-4, 7-6.
Going into the final set tie break I was -£137 on both players. Thankfully the tie break was very one sided and I was able to reduce th eloss to -£11.
21:00 – Roddick v Soderling
Rankings are 8 and 7. Head to heads are 2-0 to Soderling. In the 4 sets that they have played against each other 3 of them were tie breaks.
I think its fair to say that the match will be dominated by serves.
Roddick’s first serve percentage is 72% to Soderling’s 62%.
Roddick wins 91% of his service games to Soderlings 86%.
As I would expect at least 1 of the sets to end in a tie break, back Roddick on serve. You can also back Soderling on serve. I recommend placing all trades on Soderling’s ladder ( so when Roddick is serving, lay Soderling).
Soderling’s recent form has been good enough to make him favourite but it will be close.
Update: Close it was! The games were going with serve with Soderling holding easier than his opponent. Towards the end of the set Soderling had a poor game and Roddick broke.. He held on to take the set.
The second set was close and it was Soderling’s turn to get the break of serve. He levelled the match at 1 set all.
In the decider it was Roddick who got the break . He broke again at 5-3 to take the match.
Profit : £46