Indian Wells – Tuesday

I am planning on doing a video of the game selection and writing of the blog tomorrow. For today its business as usual.

 

20:00 – Cilic v Wawrinka

Rankings are 20 and 14. Head to heads are 4-2 to Wawrinka but 3 of those matches were on clay. Cilic has won their last  2 matches which were both on hard courts.

I tipped Wawrinka to beat Davydenko in the last round but he made very heavy work of it and I had to work to get my green finish. I feel his win in the end was more down to Davydenko’s mistakes.

Cilic’s form towards the end of last season wasn’t great. He seems to have hit a vein of form so far this season and has been much more consistent. He reached the final in Marseille and the quarter finals in the ABN Amro and Zagreb tournaments.

Cilic holds serve  87% to Wawrinka’s 81%. On paper Wawrinka is better on return of serve and creates more break chances than Cilic. However I feel recent form is favouring Cilic.

Wawrinka may well start slowly again and rely on his ability to come back. That may not be good enough against a confident Cilic.

Back Cilic on serve. A small back bet from the start could also be a good idea as Cilic starts at around 1.90 .

We could well see 3 sets but I expect Cilic to com out on top.

 

 

22:00 – Gasquet v Melzer

Rankings are 21 and 10. Head to heads are 2-0 to Melzer but both the matches were on clay.

Gasquet has 3 quarter final appearances this year and Melzer has one.

Melzer’s recent form in the Davis cup was dire. I have always said that he is one of my favourite players but that is currently under review. He used to fight to the death regardless of the match score. More recently he is liable to crumble and starts moaing about anything from crowd noise to bad line calls.

Trading Gasquet games always runs the risk of the Frenchman going AWOL part way through he match. In terms of raw talent Gasquet is ahead here. He can get nervous and tight in matches. I have a theory that this is the reason he changes the grip tape on his racquets so frequently at the changeovers as this gives him something other than the match to concentrate on.

I am leaning towards  a Gasquet win and will be backing him from the start. One thing to be wary of with this tactic is that Melzer’s best game plan is to be aggressive from the first point. If he starts that way he is unlikely based on recent matches to keep that going for more than a few games.

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