Finally indian Wells gets underway! Lots of games although we’re back to evenings and the late nights! At least those of you who work full time will be able to get some trading in. I’ll try to pick matches that will be suitable to trade even if you have to be up early tomorrow!
21:00 – Errani v Arn
Rankings are 41 and 58. Head to heads are 2-1 to Errani. They last played a week ago and Arn won in 3 sets.
Arn has improved her ranking from 240 a year ago. She has been very consistent this season with a title win and 2 quarter final appearances.
Errani reached the final of the Pattaya Open where she lost to Hantuchova.
Their last 2 matches went to 3 sets and the other included a tie break so the chances of this one going the distance are high. I’ll be waiting to lay the first set winner and will be looking for Arn to win the match.
In all 3 of their previous matches Errani got off to the better start and won the first set.
Update: A very tight first set went to a tie break but after 2 points of the tie break Arn retired. All bets void on the match odds market.
23:00 – Riske v Zahlavova Strycova
Rankings are 114 and 57. They have never played.
Riske has only played 1 match this year on the main tour. She lost in the first round of the Oz Open. Her last tournament where she got through qualification was in Birmingham in June where she played well and reached the semi finals. She seems to prefer the faster surfaces ( Birmingham is played on grass ) so she won’t like the playing surface at Indian Wells which is slow compared to other hard courts. Also lack of main draw match play puts her at a disadvantage.
Z S Holds serve 67% ( last 6 months) to Riske’s 50%. If you include qualifying rounds then Riske’s hold percentage rises to 73% but that is obviously against weaker opposition.
Z S has better stats against serve too with Riske having difficulty against a decent first serve.
Riske will try to be aggressive but I don’t give her much of a chance here. Z S starts at 1.50 and I would look to back her on Riske’s serve. I may also back with half stake from the start.
Update: Riske actually earned the same number of break points as her opponent. The difference was that Z S saved all 6 and Riske saved just 1.
Z S won 6-2, 6-1.