January 6th/7th 2013

This week we have ATP Auckland, ATP/WTA Sydney and WTA Hobart.

Liquidity over night should be much better than last week as traders don’t have the option of trading during the day. Matches start at midnight.

 

In Sydney Madison Keys plays Safarova. Keys has come through qualifying. All 3 of her opponents were ranked higher than her. Czink, Larsson and Doi are not terrible players. Keys has been doing exceptionally well on the ITF circuit. She has won 9 of her last 10 matches.

Safarova lost in the first round last week to Kvitova. Safarova didn’t perform well in that match which won’t have helped her confidence. Ranked 17th she is rightly the favourite against 137 ranked Keys. They have played just once before which was at the US Open in 2011. That was won by Safarova in 3 sets. Both players have improved since that match. Keys will have the boost that regular wins gives a player but we need to bear in mind the level of opponent that they have had.

Safarova starts at 1.63 which if she was in form would be generous. However she has had just 1 match this season so she may still be struggling to find her timing. Something that hurt her against Lisicki was hitting 8 double faults. I would expect that number to come down tonight.

I will be waiting to see how Safarova serves in the early games and hopefully if she seems to be serving well she won’t break early and we can get on her around 1.80 or better.

A good chance of 3 sets with each set being close.

Update: No video for this unfortunately. Safarova managed 1 or 2 decent games before she appeared to give up and offered very little resistance.

Keys won 6-2, 6-1.

 

In Auckland Rochus plays Ramos. They have played once before. That was on Ramos’ favoured surface, clay, yet it was Rochus who won in 3 tight sets. I feel Rochus is the better hard court player. His price has dropped from above evens to its current level of 1.82 but I think it is still a cracking price.

Rochus has played just 1 match this season which was a qualifying round loss to Donald Young. That doesn’t fill me with confidence but he has got that first match out of the way.

Ramos has also had just 1 match which he lost to Lorenzi in straight sets which for me balances out the Young result!

I’ll put part stake on Rochus at the start and add the rest once I see that he is performing as the better player. Obviously if he is having a nightmare this will reduce the damage that putting full stake on would cause.

Update: Rochus broke early and a second break secured the set. Ramos fought back to take a close second set but it was again   Rochus who took control in the decider.

Rochus won 6-2, 5-7, 6-2.

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