10:00 – Schiavone v Govortsova
Rankings are 24 and 67. Head to heads are 1-1.
Both women have beaten some good players this week. They were both taken to 3 sets in the first round but haven’t lost a set since.
Govortsova is playing above her ranking and should make a match of this but Schiavone is favourite for the title.
Use 15-40 and if Schiavone gets a solid lead allow a back bet to run to the end of the set.
Update: Schiavone broke serve early but then the players swapped breaks. Typical WTA set! Having entered the market just before she broke the first time I trusted my judgement of the outcome and stuck with it. I knew that if the set was close that Schiavone would come out on top. Bit of a risk but sometimes you need to put your money where your mouth is 😉
Greened up at the end of the set which was a bit annoying as the 2nd set was a walkover.
Schiavone won 6-3, 6-0.
12:00 – Tipsarevic v Youzhny
Rankings are 46 and 30. Head to heads are 2-0 to Tipsarevic.
Both men are good servers with service games won at 78% and 79%. Games won against serve are 24% and 23%.
Neither man has lost a set so far and this could be very close. Tipsarevic could have a slight edge because he has never lost to Youzhny.
However I think it could be Youzhny’s day today. He has won 4 titles so knows how to win a final. Tipsarevic has yet to win his first ATP final.
Back Youzhny on serve.
Update: I backed Youzhny on his first service game and was £10 up by the end of it. I stayed away from Tipsarevic’s serve as I expected him to be broken at some point. However he moved to 40-0 on his own serve and I put in a back bet on Youzhny at the price I expected him to be when his opponent won the game. It was matched ( just) at 1.77 just as Youzny came back to 40-15, then 40-30 and then deuce. I decided to let it run as even if he lost the game the price would return, more or less, to 1.77 . Fortunately for me he broke serve and I could have greened up for £70+.
I decided to let it run a little. He held serve to go 3-1. His opponent held serve for 3-2 and then got to 30-0 against Youzhny’s serve so I hedged for £50. Turned out to be a smart move as he completed the break of serve. When they swapped mini breaks in the tie break I managed to skillfully get that to a green of +10!
In the second set I backed Youzhny as he looked like breaking serve which he did. By the end of the second set I had rescued the green to £65.
Youzhny won 6-7, 6-0, 6-4.