Safina v Lisicki
The number 1 seed showed a lot of character yesterday to come through against Mauresmo. Such a difference to the player that fell apart in the French Open final. That 3 setter will have taken a lot out of her and Lisicki is no mug. The German girl has beaten top players in her last 2 games and her confidence will be sky high.
I’m tempted by the BF price of 1.48 for Safina. I feel she’ll come though the match but she won’t have it all her own way. 15-40 will work well, as will wait for the break but the best value is in backing Safine from the start. Could easily be a 3 setter.
Edit: Contradicted myself there! I was expecting a 3 setter so best value would have been when Lisicki won a set! (twit)
Update:Safina won in 3 sets as predicted. 15-40 will have given a nice green. Wait for the serve would have worked too as long as you greened up after the first set.
V Williams v Radwanska
Personally I won’t be trading this one. Partly because we’re going to Lake windermere and partly because the only value is if you think Williams will struggle early on and her price of 1.13 will move out. Anything can happen ofcourse but I can’t see it.
Update: Williams won 6-1, 6-2 . Enough said 🙂
Azarenka v S Williams
This one could be interesting. Azarenka won their last match just a couple of months ago. Williams’ price of 1.31 will move out. I wouldn’t even be suprised if this went to 3 sets. Both women are capable of breaking the other’s serve so 15-40 could be the safest strategy. I’d be laying Williams from the start as I can see some profit there.
Update: Called that one wrong as regards laying Williams at the start. She won in 2 sets. 15-40 will have worked a treat though 😉
Schiavone v Dementieva
Dementieva should come through this one. How easy it is will depend on how strong she is mentally. She has a tendancy to wobble when you least expect it! Her price of 1.33 is a little short and I can see the first set taking her out to 1.50ish. Schiavone can be dangerous on her day and she has been playing very well but I can only see one eventual winner. 15-40 as always will work well, as will wait for the break.
Update: In this one too, the favourite didn’t struggle at the start. Dementieva won in 2 sets and got off to a very quick start in the first set going, I think 4-0 up. Both suggested strats would have worked. If I had layed her from the start I would have hedged out for a loss after she broke serve and then backed her 🙂