There weren’t too many upsets on Sunday although Keys beating Li Na in straight sets was certainly 1 of them. It was more poor performances than defeats that seemed to set the tone for the early rounds. More of the same can provide us with some good trading opportunities.
Suarez Navarro played the final in Portugal on Saturday. She was up a break in the opening set and had a hat full of chances to go a double break up but managed to lose the set and the match in straight sets. Its hard to know whether that will affect her performance today. She hadn’t beaten Pav before so must have thought she was in with a chance to get that first win.
Stosur leads the head to heads 2-1 although they have never played on clay which is certainly Carla’s best surface.
Stosur has always started their matches as a strong favourite. Today she is once again favourite but 1.64 is the highest she has been in this match up.
If Suarez Navarro hadn’t had a long week last week and suffered the disappointment of losing her lead in that final I would have no hesitation in backing her. We need to watch the first few games to try to assess whether her heart is in this match. With it being at home she really should be up for the fight but she can get a little sulky if she isn’t in the mood.
Stosur has had some fitness issues in recent weeks too. A lay on Stosur below 1.35 would be nice but only if Carla is fighting for the points.
John Isner looks like a healthy price at 1.63 against Garcia Lopez. However I don’t expect him to have things all his own way.
The American has had some great wins on the dirt including beating Federer in the Davis Cup. His form has tailed off a little since then but he still picked up a title on clay last month beating Almagro in straight sets in the final.
Garcia Lopez has come through a period of poor form which wasn’t helped by a lower back problem. He reached the final in Bucharest losing to Rosol and the week before he reached the final of a Challenger clay event in Rome. A quarter final finish in Casablanca was also a good result with Wawrinka knocking him out there.
I think this will be a tight match and I am slightly favouring Isner to win it but I expect him to need 3 sets.
Garcia Lopez has won the opening set in both their previous matches. An early low price on Isner will be a good entry for a lay.