Madrid Open 2013 – Tuesday

Yesterday’s betting tips saw Soler Espinosa get over powered by Mladenovic and McHale come through a tough 3 setter with Peng. When Peng levelled at 1 set all McHale went to the toilet and the market reacted as though she had gone for an MTO. Peng’s price dropped from evens to below 1.50!

Raonic was the third pick and he beat Davy in 2 sets. Unfortunately our entry price of 1.60 was just 3 ticks higher than the highest price matched 🙁

 

Fognini and Youzhny  can both be unpredictable and both can also be brilliant. Their matches are rarely straight forward. Incredibly they have never played one another.

Fognini had a great run in Monte Carlo where he lost in the semi final. He was one of the few people not to take a set off Djokovic that week!

When Youzhny is in form he is a joy to watch. His one handed back hand can be devastating. Unfortunately  his only  solid event this year was in Croatia where he reached the semi final. The rest of his season has been disappointing.

So Fognini rightly starts as favourite at 1.67. He has been knocked out in the first round in Madrid for the last 3 years so it won’t hurt his ranking if he goes out today. Next week the tour moves to Rome where he will want to perform well and improve on his second round last year. A week to prepare and perhaps see some of his family would make an early exit this week seem not so bad.

However I feel Fognini will fancy his chances in this one and will go for the win over an opponent lacking in confidence.

Expect a few swings and I will look to get on Foggy over evens.

Update: Fognini served for the match in the third set and was 40-0. His concentration was blown and Youzhny won the set and the match in a tie break.

Youzhny won 7-6, 2-6, 7-6.

 

Tipsarevic is another player having a bad season. Today he is up against Monaco who started slowly in 2013 but has really stepped it up recently.

Monaco starts at 1.51 and whilst I expect him to win the match he hast lost his last 3 matches with Tipsarevic including a match on the clay in Stuttgart last July. He has lost 7 of his last 8 matches against top 10 opposition.

I doubt many people will feel that Tipsarevic is playing like a top 10 player but in his more recent matches he has shown segments of play of the level we would expect. He just hasn’t been able to close matches out or take advantage of winning positions.

So I feel a lay of Monaco below 1.40 is good place to start but don’t get greedy.

Update: Tipsarevic took a 4-1 lead but Monaco came back to take the set in a tie break. He finished the job in straight sets.

Monaco won 7-6, 6-3.

    Trading Guide