Malaysian Open – Final

09:00 – Davydenko v Verdasco

Rankings are 8 and 9. Head to heads are 5-1 to Davydenko.

1st v 2nd seed and this should be an interesting one to watch. Its a pity bet365 is showing the other final in Thailand.

Davydenko came back strong to beat Soderling after losing the first set 6-1 and he’ll have taken great satisfaction in gaining a little revenge for his defeat in the US Open.

Verdasco has had a great week and hasn’t lost a set so far.

The match  will be dominated by serve. First serves in are 69%/71%. Service games won are 82%/85% and break points saved are 59%/65%.

So the serve stats give Verdasco the edge however Davydenko wins more games against serve.

You could back either or both player on their service games. Davydenko has been at this stage many more times than his opponent so that gives him the edge for me. They are more or less even on Betfair.

I’ll be backing Davydenko’s serves and waiting to see how Verdasco settles down in the early games to decide whether or not I back his.

Davydenko is usually a strong front runner so if he gets ahead a back bet can be left to run to the end of the set.

Update: I have traded just the first set as my internet is playing up a little.

In the very first game Davydenko had a break point and I backed him at 1.68. Verdasco came back to win the game but I left the back bet in there as an actual break of serve would take the price well below 1.68 and I would be ahead of the game. I then continued to back Davydenko on serve  ( effectively ignoring the 1.68 back bet). In the screen shot the first bet is at the bottom.

davytradesdavydenkogreen

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