Match Picks – Thursday

16:00 – Paszek v Craybas

Rankings are 151 and 123. Head to heads are 1-0 to Paszek.

Craybas beat Rezai in the last round so I am surprised to see her as underdog for this one even with the head to head record. Let’s see what the stats have to say….

Both players have mediocre serves and win just 60% of points on first serve and 46%/44% on second serve.

Paszek has much better stats on return of serve winning 39% against first serves and 55% against second serves. Craybas wins 38% of points against first serves and 50% against second serves.

Paszek converts 52% of break point chances to Craybas’ 42%.

So the stats suggest Paszek will win but Craybas is clearly in good form so I can see this being close with lots of breaks. There is also a chance that with Craybas being a lot older she may be tired after her 3 set match

Stick to scalping and 15-40’s especially against second serves.

Update: Paszek won 6-3, 6-2.

 

 

18:00 – Arvidsson v Lucic

Rankings are 48 and 118. they haven’t played before.

Arvidsson came through her last match losing just 2 games.

Lucic started terribly against Cirstea losing the first set 6-0 but made an amazing turn around to take the next 2 sets 6-1, 6-1.

Service holds from these two are 53% and 51%. Points won on second serve are 43% and 38%.

Lucic has converted more break point chances and won more points against second serves than her opponent.

Lucic has won 4 in a row when priced as underdog and Arvidsson has lost 5 of the last 6 matches where she was priced as favourite!

Tough to pick a winner but I feel Lucic needs her first serve to be working well today as she has little or no back up plan with her second serve.

This match will probably be lost rather than won but if I had to pick a winner I”d go with Arvidsson.

Scalping again for me concentrating on laying the server on second serve at 0-30, 15-30, 15-40 and 0-40.

Update: Arvidsson won 5-7, 6-4, 6-2.

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