Match Picks – Tuesday

As often happens after a Grand Slam the liquidity in the days immediately after is pretty dire.

I have traded 2 or 3 matches this morning but a combination of rain delays and scoreboard freezes haven’t made it easy. If you do trade these thin markets make sure you use reduced stakes. If you choose your entry points carefully you can still make a profit but bear in mind that if the trade goes against you it can result in more ticks lost than normal.

Hopefully the Quebec tournament wll be a bit better this evening now that the added distraction of the US Open final is out of the way.

Not easy to know where the money will go so tread carefully…

 

16:00 – Riske v Oudin

Rankings are 154 and 43.  They haven’t played before.

Oudin hasn’t been in the best form but she has all the weapons she needs to win his one. Her starting price of 1.39 seems attractive.

In the past year Riske has only played 7 matches on the main tour and lost 3 of them but still managed to hold serve  74% of the time with a first serve percentage of 71%.

Oudin’s matches rarely throw up surprises. If she is priced as favourite she usally wins but this is the WTA.

Use scalping and 15-40 ( especially in Oudin’s favour). Both players are weak on second serve.

Update: Oudin won 6-2, 7-6.

 

 

20:00 – Safarova v Lepenko

Rankings are 28 and 98. Head to heads are 1-0 to Safarova.

Safarova hasn’t enjoyed much success lately but has had some tough draws. She wins more points against serve and converts more break point chances than her opponent and starts as strong favourite.

I doubt that either player is full of confidence and we could see a lot of price swings. If the players are threatening to break serve frequently then laying the server is an option  as is often the case in the WTA.

Again, scalping and 15-40 will also work. Safarova should take it in straight sets.

Update:  Safarova won 7-5, 6-3.

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1 thought on “Match Picks – Tuesday”

  1. Nice analysis. Like what you posted for the U.S Open Mens Final and agree that in the end its really too high a mountain for Djorkvic to climb.

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