Daily match picks

Daily match tips

Wimbledon 2014 – Women’s Semi Finals

13:00 – Safarova v Kvitova

Kvitova leads the head to heads 5-0 but they played on grass last month and it went to a 3rd set tie break. Safarova hasn’t lost a set so far and made Cibulkova and Makarova look very ordinary.

Kvitova has lost just the one set which was to Venus Williams. She has looked fairly comfortable in her other matches.

Both are playing well and serving well. Kvitova is at a slight advantage as she has been at this stage of the tournament before. She reached the semi finals in 2010 and then won the title the year after. In the last 2 seasons though she lost in the quarter finals. This is the first time Safarova has been past the third round. In the previous 6 seasons she only won 2 matches in total. This semi final  is a big deal for her.

Kvitova is way too low at 1.40 and will trade higher in play but I expect her to win a very tight match.

It is worth laying Kvitova either at the start or below 1.30 if you want slightly better value. I think we will see a lot of price swings and lead changes in this one.

 

15:00 – Bouchard v Halep

This should be a great match and will come down to who handles the occasion better at arguably the biggest tournament in the world. Wimbledon is a little different to the other slams with all its history and traditions. Neither player has reached this stage before although Bouchard has been in every slam semi final this year and Halep made the final at Roland Garros.

They have played just once before which was in Indian Wells in March. Halep won in 3 sets.

Bouchard served at 3-3 against Kerber and saved 4 break points. Kerber fell apart after that and lost 5 of the next 6 games. By the time Kerber got her head together Bouchard was a double break up in the second set. Kerber almost pulled back and had a break point to get back on serve but wasn’t able to take it.

Halep struggled with her serve in the early games and went 1-4 down against Lisicki but once she found her serve Lisicki was blown away. Halep is a big match player and I feel if she gets those chances that Kerber wasn’t able to take she won’t be wasting them.

I think Bouchard will get off to a better start but Halep will come through.

Halep starts at 1.62 but I think we will see her approaching evens in the first set.

    Trading Guide

Wimbledon 2014 – Week 2, Day 3

The two WTA matches are covered for Shark Tips and I try not to duplicate picks on the blog unless it’s a semi final or final.

 

ATP, 14:00Djokovic leads the head to heads with Cilic 9-0 although they have never played on grass. Grass is probably Cilic’s best chance of beating him. He has taken sets from Djokovic before including at their two grand slam matches. The latest was at the French Open this year. Their other 2014 match also saw Cilic take a set.

Simon and Tsonga weren’t able to take a set from Djokovic but on this surface Cilic should return better than both those players. the problem is that he won’t be able to maintain the standard required to actually beat Djokovic.

Two of the three sets that Cilic has taken from Djokovic were tie breaks and that would seem to be his best chance today.

 

ATP, 14:00Murray faces his biggest test so far today. The last time he played Dimitrov he lost in 3 sets.

Murray leads the head to heads 3-1. This is their first meeting on grass. He has won 29 of his lat 31 matches on grass.

Dimitrov’s game is maturing and he won the title in Eastbourne. If Murray is below his best today then Dimitrov has the ability to take advantage. He will certainly serve well and i don’t expect Murray to have a lot of chances to break him.

The support that Murray gets at Wimbledon now gives him a massive boost and they can carry him through any poor periods in matches.

I don’t think this will be straight sets but in the last 3 seasons Dimitrov has won just 2 of his last 20 when priced above 3.00

 

ATP, 16:30 – Is Kyrgios the new Rosol? He will hope not . Both have beaten Nadal at Wimbledon but whilst Rosol has done ok since that win he hasn’t exactly set the tennis world alight. There will also be comparisons between Kyrgios and Tomic as young Aussies. Both have an arrogant air about them but somehow Kyrgios doesn’t irritate in the same way Tomic does. (what are those bloody jackets about, Bernard??)

tomic jacket

Kyrgios’ game is perfect for grass and it remains to be seen whether his game will develop on other surfaces but right now he is proving tough to beat.

Raonic was broken in his first game against Nishikori and he holds serve around 90% of the time he was clearly rattled. he started to come more into the match as the set wore on but didn’t get the break. The second set onwards was a very different story as he raced into a 3-0 lead in set 2. Nishikori was struggling a little with blisters and wasn’t as keen to enter into the long rallies that he had been winning in set 1.

Raonic’s confidence was growing and that makes him serve that bit better. Nishikori got very few chances against the Canadian’s serve after that.

Raonic’s return stats are slightly better than Kyrgios’ and in a serve dominated match that could make a difference. The Aussie 19 year old was fearless against Nadal.

Tie breaks are bound to be a factor. Both have a 57% win record in breakers in the last 3 months (on the main tour) although Raonic has played twice as many.

We don’t know how Kyrgios will react to his win over Nadal and I suspect we will learn a lot about him in this match.

I think it’s worth laying Raonic at the start as this can go either way.

 

ATP, 16:30 – I had said in my post on the Wimbledon draws that an all Swiss quarter final was a possibility. It was likely that Federer would get this far as he has had an easy draw but I thought Wawrinka would have struggled with Isner/Lopez. As it turned out Lopez finally ran out of energy and couldn’t even find aces to keep himself in the match.

Wawrinka’s improvement on the grass this season is no surprise. People have been quick to dismiss him as a contender due to his poor record on the surface but with so few grass matches each year it was to be expected that the work that he and coach Norman have put into improving all aspects of his game would take a little longer to show results on the grass.

He serves big which is ideal but his movement isn’t quite what it should be.

This is Federer’s toughest match by a long way in this tournament. He has been able to cruise through previous rounds. That may not help him although I have no doubt he would like to show he is still the Swiss number 1 on grass.

Federer starts at 1.33 which is way too low and I’ll be laying that. Stan’s form since winning the Australian Open hasn’t been spectacular and he has lost some matches that he really shouldn’t have. Surely he is up for this one though and 4 or 5 sets looks likely.

I think we will see Federer trading a lot higher than 1.33. I have to give the slightest of edges to him though.

 

 

 

 

    Trading Guide

We are using cookies on this site

Please click "Accept" if you accept our tracking cookies. You can also decline the tracking, so you can continue to visit our website without any data being sent to third party services.