May 4th 2012

Haas v Baghdatis:

Former world number 2 Tommy Haas knocked out Tsonga 6-1, 6-4 in the last round. In round 1 he beat Berrer in straight sets for the loss of just 2 games. He’s obviously thriving in front of his home crowd and turning the clock back a little.

Baghdatis has had a little more bumpy route to the quarter finals being taken to 3 sets by Kamke and Dustin Brown. He often finds it difficult to motivate himself against lower ranked players and makes life harder for himself than it needs to be.

The betting public have decided that Haas is quite a strong favourite. If he had been the underdog then after his performances this week the value would most certainly have been with him but 1.60 seems a little crazy.

I watched parts of both their last matches. In the first set against Brown Baggy’s opponent was making just about any shot he tried. Lines were being hit and serves were whizzing past Baghdatis’ ears time and time again. Once a few errors crept in from Brown some sort of normality returned and Baghdatis was able to control the match a little more although the sets were still very close.

Top seed Tsonga didn’t seem to be overly interested against Haas although the German was hitting the ball consistently well and also served well.

Haas’ wins will have made Baghdatis sit up and take notice. He won’t be taking his opponent for granted and that is often when his performances improve. This should be a very interesting match with Haas probably taking an early lead. If this develops into a long match then Baghdatis is favourite  for me although I expect him to come through anyway.

Update: Another amazing first set from Haas. Baghdatis didn’t know what hit him. The second set was closer and Bagdhatis had a set point before they went into a tie break which Haas won.

Haas won 6-1, 7-6.


Tomic v Lopez:

Two players with big serves who usually just do enough to get a break and then serve out the set. Tie break anyone?

They have played just once before which was at the Oz Open in 2011. That ended in a straight sets win for Tomic.

Both players have improved since their last meeting although obviously the biggest improvement in ranking has been made by Tomic.

Lopez is rightly favourite on Betfair but they are more even than the 1.66 suggests. His recent losses have been to top clay court players ( Ferrer, Wawrinka and Isner).

Tomic came up against Montanes when the Spaniard cared enough to try and he wasn’t able to cope with Dolgopolov’s motivation either. He performs better against more conventional styles such as Lopez possesses.

This is a tough one to predict as if they both play to their strengths it could be decided by just a few points either way. The surface favours Lopez though and I think he will come through for the win.

 Update: Lopez won 6-4, 6-2.

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