Fognini v Mathieu
Head to head is 1-1 with Fognini winning their last match (also on clay ) just a couple of months ago. he also won a tournament last week so is playing well and confidence will be high.
The market has Mathieu as fave at 1.51 but i think this game will be closer than the price suggests. Rankings of 69 and 37 tell us that neither player is super-consistent.
I can see this one being a 3 setter or 2 close sets and wouldnt be at all surprised to see Fognini take it. I’m not certain enough to back him from the start though and 15-40 or Scalping is the strategy to use here.
Update: Mathieu retired at 1-4 down in the second set having lost the first 4-6. Think I counted 6 15-40 opportunities and they were all profitable 🙂