Metz – Wed

13:00 – A Beck v Ascione

Beck is ranked 44 while Ascione is unranked. They haven’t met.

Beck tends to do better on clay but should have more than enough to win this one although if Ascione could find a little of his old form he can make a game of it.

If you get a 15-40 opportunity in Beck’s favour take it. Otherwise you could back Beck on his service games.

Should be Beck in straight sets.

Update: Beck won 6-2, 6-4

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19:00 – Gicquel v Mathieu

Rankings are 69 and 27 and head to heads are 2-1 in Mathieu’s favour although Gicquel won their last match earlier in the year.

Looking at the stats on serve there is only a percentage point between them.

First serves in – 56/57%

Games won on serve – 72/71%

Break points saved – 64/63%

Receiving stats aren’t much more help. Games won against serve are 20 and 21%. The only stats that really seperate them are  the break points converted with Mathieu winning 44% to Gicquel’s 36%.

Betfair has them pretty even. For me Mathieu is favourite and backing him on serve would be a good place to start. The stats suggest he is slightly more likely to convert a 15-40 opportunity.

Could be a very tight match.

Update : A very tight first set.  I thought Mathieu’s price had been a bit highrt than the 1.55 that it started at. He broke serve in the first game and I backed him at a price of 1.23 . This wasnt a good price to enter at as the potential downside was large. But I trustd my judgement even when Gicqeul broke back and took it to a tie break. I was ready to switch sides but Mathieu came through. I greened up after the end of the first set.

He won the second set 6-4.

mathieugreen

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2 thoughts on “Metz – Wed”

  1. Hi Paul

    I’m just starting to do a bit of trading on tennis although time is a constraint at the moment. Just wondering why you would back the server ie Matthieu in the match above rather than entering a trade/backing him on return games. Seems to me that the upside of backing on a service game is fairly low whereas the downside if he loses serve is significant.

    1. Hi Jonny,
      Agreed that the upside if you back the receiver is great when service is broken. However in the majority of non-claycourt matches there will be many more games where the service is held. So whilst the downside is less, those small losses would more than likely outweigh the profits from the breaks. But there are so many different ways to tade tennis and these are just the ones I use 🙂

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