Miami 2013 – week 1, Friday

Did I say yesterday’s matches looked more stable? WRONG! What a day!

Without live video its impossible to know what was going on but many of the matches were so random it wouldn’t surprise me to find out that the players were sitting on the court playing rock/paper/scissors to decide who won the next point. The fact that this is one of the biggest events of the year appears to make no difference.

Are we seeing more deuces these days? It certainly seems that way. I think if players have more than 6 deuces in one game the match should be abandoned and the players publicly flogged as a warning to others.

Obviously in WTA matches anything is possible. Sloane Stephens appeared to have sent her crap twin sister on to play the first set against Govortsova. Perhaps she was thinking Slaine Stephens could take care of this average opponent but when the first set was lost 6-0 the “real” Stephens stepped up to win the match. I’m sure people were saying that is “classic WTA” but how often would a strong favourite actually lose 0-6?

Wickmayer doesn’t have the worst serve on the tour so when she was 5-2 in the opening set you’d expect her to be able to at least take the set. Nope. 6-7 and went on to lose in 3 sets.

It wasn’t isolated to the women. Nalbandian was cruising to victory at a set and 3-0. Lost in 3 sets.

Troicki won in straight sets. I mean COME ON! What’s going on??

Obviously these types of matches ( not Troicki ) give us traders some excellent opportunities but if you’re trying to predict the eventual winner of a match you have a better chance of being able to knit fog.

Ok now I got that off my chest lets try to find some value….

 

Jamie Hampton is in front of her home crowd. She has been in good form with a third round in Melbourne, a quarter final in Memphis and a third round last week in Indian Wells. Her opponent today is Suarez Navarro.

Carla hasn’t had quite as much success this season as Hampton although she did reach the final of the clay court event in Mexico. She has had some respectable wins including over Schiavone on clay and Soler Espinosa on both clay and hard courts. She lost to Sharapova in Indian Wells but the 5-7, 3-6 scoreline reflects the great effort she put in.

I feel Hampton is too short at 1.56 and that Suarez Navarro has the ability to at least take a set here.

 

Vesnina has a tough job to beat Donna Vekic today. The Croation qualifyer always competes well and her stats are very similar to the Russian’s.

I won’t be involved at the start but will see how the opening games go. If there appears to be any fragility in Vesnina’s serve I will look to lay her below 1.40 . 3 sets are a real possibility.

 

 

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3 thoughts on “Miami 2013 – week 1, Friday”

  1. Tend to agree about the standard – as a relatively new trader I have been astonished at the frequency of deuce service games and how frequently, especially in WTA, a break of serve is not consolidated.

    1. Hi Stephen,

      Breaks are certainly more frequent in the WTA so in general a consolidated break is a real bonus. There are a few women who are usually able to hold fairly well.
      The men are expected to hold especially on faster courts but they seem to have been watching the ladies play a little to much!

  2. The Melzer v Kamke games and Vinci v Suarez Navarro as cases in point. I felt embarrassed watching them at times 😉

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