Miami 2013 – week 1, Thursday

I was right about it being a rocky road yesterday. One good example was the Parmentier v Soler Espinosa match. Soler Espinosa was in total control from the start and took the set 6-0. Now if you were looking for a match when you could let a bet run surely this was it. Parmentier’s form has already faded after a decent start to the year and she showed no signs of it improving in Miami. Though something told me to trade out and move to another match. Smart move as Parmentier took the set in a tie break!

At first glances today’s list of games look a little more stable. Famous last words!

 

Heather Watson was in control of her match against Morita yesterday but an injury allowed her opponent to get back into the second set. Morita took the deciding set for what had looked like an unlikely victory in the early stages of the match.

Today Morita is up against Wickmayer. Wickmayer starts as favourite in Betfair at 1.71 . She leads the head to heads 2-0 with their last meeting being a year ago in Doha. Morita won just 3 games that day.

Wickmayer has shown some good form this year. her losses have been close matches and as long as she wants to fight for the win today it is hers to take.

Part stake for me at the start and i hope to add to it above evens.

Update: This match set the tone for the day and was a sign of things to come.

Wickmayer was unable to hold serve easily but she was getting there eventually. At 5-2 up I was waiting for her to take the set before exiting my trade. She lost 4 of the next 5 games and then lost the tie break. She did take the second set with a double break.

She broke immediately in the third set but was herself broken 3 times .

Morita won 7-6, 2-6, 6-3.

 

Goerges takes on Wild Card Tomljanovic from Croatia. Goerges doesn’t have a great record in Miami. Last year she lost in the first round to Clijsters which is obviously no embarrassment but in 2011 she went out in straight sets to Melanie Oudin. Seriously. Goerges has never been past the second round.

Tomljanovic secured her first win in Miami when she beat Pervak for the loss of just 4 games. She rarely gets past the first round of main tour events so this is a big deal for her.

Goerges starts as favourite at 1.40 but you never know what you’re going to get from the German. Obviously if she plays her best tennis she will have far too much for Tomljanovic but her recent form suggests we won’t see that level from her today. I still expect her to win but I think we will get a higher price to back her. 1.60 to 1.70 is more tempting.

Update: The warnig signs were there early as Goerges struggled to hold serve. She was the first to be broken. She broke back but I wasn’t confident enough to stay in. That was a lucky escape.

Tomljanovic won 7-6, 6-2.

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