Miami, 27th March

Dimitrov v Tipsarevic:

Dimitrov has an impressive win over Berdych in the last round.  Whilst Dimitrov played well Berdych was a level or two below his best. Berdych has a tendency to play “safe” in opening sets and seems to concentrate more on not making errors than in being aggressive and making winners. If he comes up against an opponent who is being successful with their attacking strokes then he can be slow to adjust.

Tipsarevic is always aggressive and often gets himself into winning positions only to throw them away. He has an inbuilt self destruct button that has been used so often there must be steam coming out of it. This week however he has held it together much better getting a revenge win over Nalbandian in staight sets and then in beating tricky opponent Dolgopolov in 3 sets. He was in total control of the third set.

Head to heads are 2-0 in favour of Tipsarevic.

Dimitrov who dated Serena Williams ( he was probably too scared to say no ) hadn’t beaten a top 10 player before his win over Berdych. I don’t see him repeating the feat today.

1.36 is perhaps a little short for Tipsarevic and we should see a higher price if Dimitrov can serve as he did in the last match. 1.50 is a fairer price and anything over 1.60 will get my interest.

Update: Very solid display from Tipserevic. He wasn’t able to break serve in the first set and it went to tie break. He won that and Dimitrov faded badly in the second set.

Tipsarevic won 7-6, 6-2.

 

 S Williams v Wozniacki:

Williams leads the head to heads 3-0 with the most recent meeting being at last year’s US Open. She won in straight sets.

Losing the number 1 spot probably hit Wozniacki quite hard.  Now ranked 6 she will feel less pressure to win every match and once that expectation disappears some of her edge is gone.

Today she meets someone who was very vocal about how it was wrong that Woz was number 1 when she had never won a Grand Slam event. Serena really isn’t a nice person. She is a bully who thinks she can do or say whatever she likes but spits the dummy out whenever authority steps in. However its that type of attitude that if matched with sporting ability can produce winners.

Against Stosur at times it was like each player had a rocket launcher. They were more interested in hitting the ball hard than hitting the angled winner. Williams’ sheer will to win was just too strong.

Wozniacki doesn’t have the power to go toe to toe with Williams. I would love to see Serena dumped out of the tournament but I don’t think it happens today.

I would prefer a higher price though and she has served a few bad games this tournament so its quite likely we will see 1.80 or higher. Anything over that and I will be piling on.

Update: First impression after the opening game was that Williams would walk all over Woz. Woz seemed intimidated. However she then held her own serve to 0. From then on she played more aggressively than normal and was being very consistent on serve. She broke Williams’ serve early and I backed Williams, thinking that her own aggression would prove too much for her opponent.

Time after time Williams would get a lead in the Wozniacki service games and then go for crazy big shots and miss by a mile. She just wasn’t there mentally and Wozniacki didn’t face a single break point in the first set.

I went with my gut feeling that Williams wasn’t herself and banked on Wozniacki not falling apart in the second set and I switched my position.

After a tough hold from Williams I hoped Wozniacki held it together. She did and then won a break of serve. At 5-2 Woz served for the match but was broken. Williams held for 4-5 and Wozniacki served again for the match. This time there was no mistake.

Great performance from Wozniacki to win 6-4, 6-4.

    Trading Guide

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