More and more matches seem pretty random at the moment. Get your coins ready!
Brands has only beaten Lorenzi once and never on clay. Their last match was in 2011 though and a lot has changed since then. Today Brands starts as favourite which may have something to do with Lorenzi pulling out from Bastad last week with the ankle injury that forced him to retire from his semi final in a Challenger the week before.
Brands can be inspired by playing in front of a home crowd and reached the semi finals in Munich in April. This is his first match on clay after the grass season so he may have timing issues early in the match.
An ankle injury isn’t something that playing on clay will improve. I think we will get an early higher price on Brands and then will look to back him.
Update: Lorenzi kept the opening set close but in the end Brands was too strong.
Brands won 7-5, 6-3.
A 5-0 head to head for Medina Garrigues over Dominguez Lino gives us a price of 1.71 on a player who isn’t in great form. Lino made the quarter finals last week losing to eventual winner Vinci.
Lino’s weakness is her serve but she makes up for that with pure determination and fight.
Garrigues’ form has taken a slight dip since she came close to beating Serena Williams in Madrid. She did reach a final of an ITF event during the second week of the French Open where she had lost in the first round.
I will be looking to lay either player when they’re a break ahead. Their most recent match was in 2009 and I think if anything I favour Lino to get the win or at least take it to a third set.
Update: Easy win for Lino 6-1, 6-2.
Pennetta starts a little low at 1.44 against Duque Marino and whilst I expect Pennetta to win I think it could be a close one. Pennetta has been starting slowly in recent matches so there’s a decent chance that we see a higher price in the opening set. If we see 1.70 I think that’s a decent entry as long as Pennetta is playing generally ok.
Marino’s service stats are better over the last 3 months but Pennetta is ahead on return stats. Give me return over service on a clay court any day.
Update: Pennetta won 6-1, 4-6, 6-4.