Monday 4th February 2013

Just 2 main draw matches for us today as the 3 ATP tournaments finish the qualifying rounds. As the qualies are the only matches available to traders I would expect liquidity to be reasonable.

We have 2 indoor hard courts events and a clay court tournament and it’s the clay that gives us the main draw matches this evening.

 

Alund and Giraldo are first up at around 7pm.

Alund plays almost exclusively on clay and so spend a lot of his time on the Challenger circuit. He enjoyed reasonable success towards the end of last season and regularly reached the latter stages of tournaments.

Giraldo is the better known player but he hasn’t been having the best of times. In September last year he had abdominal surgery. His season hasn’t started well with just 1 win from 5 matches.

Giraldo is at 1.42 on Betfair which I feel needs to be a lay taking into consideration his poor start to the year. The sets should be close and Giraldo’s form will improve as his surgery plays less on his mind. Hopefully he makes a slow start though to give us a decent trade.

Update: Giraldo did make the slow start and was broken in the third game. That was enough give Alund the set. In set two Alund again broke in the third game but this time Giraldo was able to win 2 late breaks to snatch the set. A single break was all Giraldo needed to secure the decider.

Giraldo won 4-6, 7-5, 6-3.

 

Our second match sees Leonardo Mayer take on Volandri.

Mayer’s big weapon is his serve. Despite this being on clay that serve could be the difference between winning and losing for him. Volandri is just so inconsistent and his career must be nearing its end.

Both men have played just 1 match this season which was a first round exit for each of them at the Australian Open.

Mayer ended last season with 2 finals including taking the title in the Challenger in Ecuador.  Volandri hasn’t won a match since beating 190th ranked Giannessi in the Madrid Challenger in September. He lost in the next match to 192 ranked Gotierrez-Ferrol in straight sets.

This ought to be a Mayer win but I would like a little higher than his SP of 1.51 . There’s a very good chance that it is as high as it goes though.

Update: It would have been difficult to get this one more wrong! I wasn’t able to trade it but was amazed to see the score this morning.

Mayer was first to break but the “big server” only held his own serve once in each set!

Volandri won 6-2, 6-1.

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