Six tournaments this week means liquidity could be thinly spread. Traders often take a few days off after a Grand Slam too so pick your matches carefully. Huge gaps in the markets can make is difficult to exit a trade at a decent price. Longer term trades are easier in these conditions than scalping.
I’ll try to pick a few games that are likely to attract some traders money.
Davydenko v Brown: (clay)
Wild card entry for Brown in his “home” country. He did well in Munich on clay in April beating Brands in the first round and taking the first set from Baghdatis.
As a former Davydenko fan its tough to see him play at a fraction of the standard we used to see from him. Clay isn’t his best surface anyway and apart from a semi final in Nice this year and a second round exit in Madrid he has lost in the first round of clay court events.
He starts at 1.39 for this one which is too low. Brown can start well and if his serve is hitting its target Davy will have problems with him. Lay Davydenko from the start.
Update: The lay worked well as Brown broke first. He waas broken back but broke AGAIN to take the set. As expected Davy won the second set although it was very close. Surprisingly Brown held himself together and took the third!
Brown won 7-5, 3-6, 7-6.
Sousa v Bachinger: (clay)
Sousa won their only previous match in 2010. He won in straight sets. He is a clay specialist and has been playing well in the Challenger events.
Bachinger hasn’t been playing well and didn’t win a set in his last 2 defeats on grass. Clay gives him a little more thinking time though.
This will be a close match but Sousa has the better clay pedigree and 1.88 is a decent price.
Update: Sousa took the first set but fell apart a bit in the second.
Bachinger won 6-7, 6-1, 7-6.
Begu v Hercog: (clay)
Hercog reached the final in Palermo last year the week after she won in Bastad. Her form has been poor lately and hasn’t been helped by injury. She wasn’t fully fit at Wimbledon.
Begu tends to go out in the second rounds more often than not but she is playing well and has had some tight matches that she has ended up losing. I expect her to have enough to beat Hercog today. She starts as slight favourite at 1.90 and I will have part stake on her from the start. I’ll add the rest if I can lay Hercog at 1.70 or lower in the early games.
Update: Begu won 6-1, 7-6.