Monte Carlo – Wednesday

10:00 – Mayer v Gil

Rankings are 35 and 82. Head to heads are 1-1 with Gil winning their only match on clay in 3 sets.

Gil had an easy win over Stakovsky in the last round but Stak is very bad on clay. Mayer had a much tougher matchup against Youzhny. He started a little slow and his serve took a few games to get going but he came through the match well in 3 sets.

Mayer returns better than his opponent and if he can start the match serving well he should go through.

Gil wasn’t tested at all in his last match whereas Mayer will have been sharpened up by his match with Youzhny.

I’ll be watching a few games before getting involved but I expect Mayer to come through. However if he serves badly for 2 or 3 service games at the start he may find himself a set down. Against the higher ranked players Gil doesn’t often play well for 2 consecutive sets so we could look to lay him if he takes the opening set. That will be discussed in the chatroom.

Update: Mayer had a lead in the firsts et but couldn’t hold on. Gil won 7-5, 6-1.

 

 

Other 10am games…..

Gasquet looks a good price against Garcia-Lopez at 1.56 . He won’t be wanting another 3 setter though so may start with some big ground strokes to shorted a few rallies. Watch out if he is having another UE day though 🙂

Update: Gasquet won 6-2, 6-1.

Troicki is a back from the start match for me at 1.5 against Fognini who must be running on fumes at the moment.

Update: Troicki won 6-3, 4-6, 6-4.

 

 

15:30 – Melzer v Haase

Rankings are 9 and 63. Head to heads are 1-0 to Melzer but that was 3 years ago when he knew how to play tennis.

How bad has Melzer been lately? When you see his starting price at 1.74 its tempting to back him as we have all seen in the past what he is capable of. Maybe he has issues away from the court that are affecting his game but his confidence must be at an all time low. His undoubted talent can come through at any time of course but he doesn’t have a good record at this tournament so I doubt it will be a return to form this week.

Haase played well to beat Davydenko in the last round but Davy was pretty poor again. Sad to see as when he was at the top of his game he was fantastic to watch.

Melzer knows his best game plan is to be aggressive and I expect him to come out all guns blazing. If a few big shots start to miss though his head can drop quickly. Haase doesn’t have a good record against top 10 players but is Melzer playing like a top 10 player lately?

If Melzer gets lucky in the early games we may get a better price to lay at. I expect Haase to take a tight match if he can keep his head while Melzer is losing his. Watch for Melzer complaining about the crowd noise or the ballboys or anything to the umpire. Usually a sign he is about to implode.

Update: As expected Melzer was poor in the first set. Towards the end of it he had to take a break complaining of a fast heart rate. He continued after a few minutes and Haase took the set.

I was expecting Melzer to retire but he suddenly found some form and equalled the match at 1 set all.

In the third it was all Melzer and he won the match 3-6, 6-1, 6-2. Where did THAT come from?

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