Monterrey Open – Monday

19:00 – Kerber v Hercog

Rankings are 65 and 50. Head to heads are 3-1 to Kerber.

Hercog has lost both her hard court matches this season. She is poor on anything but clay.

Kerber is a better returner on hard courts. She reached the quarter finals of the Moorilla Hobart International in January. In her last 3 matches she has been unfortunate to meet Petkovic twice and Cibulkova in the first round of the Oz Open. All 3 matches went to 3 sets with Kerber fighting back from a set down in each.

Kerber starts at 1.39 which is no price to be backing any woman. If I can get a better price on her early in the first set I’ll be taking it. for the new guys, 15-40’s in Kerber’s favour should be good to take as long as the odds aren’t lower than 1.40 at the time.

Kerber to win in straight sets.

Update: Anyone trading this match must be braver than me as the scoreboards froze at 0-15 in the first game and didn’t come back until half way through the set. I did warn people in the chatroom that the scoreboard was likely to freeze again but not sure anyone took any notice. As predicted the scoreboard DID freez again.

Hercog played a good match and took the match 6-3, 6-3.

 

 

22:30 – Arn v Zahlavova

Rankings are 58 and 103. They haven’t played before.

Arn has started the season quite well with a tournament win in the ASB Classic in January where she beat Wickmayer in the final, Goerges in the semi final and Sharapova in the quarter final.

This season on hard courts Zahlavova has held serve just 57% of the time to Arn’s 73%.

Options to trade:

Back Arn on Zahlavova’s serve

Back Arn with half stake from the start. If she gets broken add the rest at the higher price.

Look to green up after the first set.

Update: The scoreboard was frozen for this match too. I foolishly had backed from the start and was about to scratch the trade when the scoreboard updated to say Arn was 3-0 up. The price dropped rapidly and I got out at 1.13!

Arn won 6-0, 6-4.

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