Monterrey Open – Thursday

21:00 – Hradecka v Pervak

Rankings are 83 and 88. Head to heads are 3-0 to Hradecka. The most recent 2 matches were in Feb this year and she won both in straight sets.

Hradecka reached the semi final of the Morgan Keegan Championships 2 weeks ago beating Pervak in the quarter finals. She hasn’t had much success this year apart from that but has been up against some top players such as Stosur and Pennetta.

Similarly Pervak’s only real success was that quarter final last month. She did beat Goerges in the first round here but Goerges was well below her best and served badly.

Difficult to go against the 3-0 h2h. Both are holding srve at over 70% this season although if you check stats for just hard courts then Hradecka’s service holds drop to just 59%. This is obviously due to the quality of the opposition she faced. As I said she’s been unlucky.  Looking at just this week she has held 87% of the time to Pervak’s 70%.

Pervak has returned slightly better this week especially against second serves.

Hradecka starts at 1.58 on Betfair. I don’t like to back lower ranked players from the start. Both are in decent form this week and I don’t expect a lot of breaks.

I am going with the head to head record and the 2 wins on hardcourts this year but I’d prefer to back her at a higher price. I won’t be getting involved from the start but will wait for the better price to back Hradecka. As Pervak has shown she’s playing well this week it could well go to 3 sets so if the first set is close and both have threatened the other player’s serve then laying the first set winner is a good option.

Update: Pervak won 6-2, 6-7, 6-3.

 

 

23:00 – Dulko v Wozniak

Rankings are 56 and 138. Head to heads are 1-0 to Dulko.

Dulko won the clay court tournament last week. In the first round here she beat Benesova who has been in good form on 2011.

Wozniak suffered an injury in 2010 and slipped right down the rankings. Twelve  months ago she was in the top 40 and has been a top 20 player. She has a new coach which can often bring about short term improvements in form.

Both win a similar percentage of points against first serves but Dulko is ahead significantly when it comes to returning second serves. She wins 59% of points against second serves to Wozniak’s 35%. This suggests to me  Dulko is the more aggressive on current form.

Dulko starts at 1.39 on Betfair. Whilst I expect her to win I think Wozniak has enough experience to give her some trouble. I will wait for a chance to back Dulko at a higher price, ideally around 1.80 to 1.90  .

Again, if the first set is close a lay of the first set winner is a solid strategy.

Update: Dulko won 6-4, 6-1.

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