Monterrey Open – Tuesday

17:00 – Pervak v Goerges

Rankings are 88 and 34. Head to heads are 1-0 to Pervak.

This looks like quite a close match on paper but Goerges’ stats are better if you look at just hard court matches this season.

Both players serve well with Pervak holding serve 70% of the time compared to 78% from Goerges. Goerges wins more points against the serve than Pervak and especially against second serves. She wins 49% of points against second serves.

One thing against a Goerges win today is that she has only played clay court tournaments during February whereas Pervak has been playing on the hard courts and reached the quarter finals a couple of weeks ago.

I’d give Goerges 2 or 3 games to get used to the court and conditions and then back her when Pervak is serving.  Her own serve should be solid enough and I’d expect her to get the first break. If the first set is close then laying the first set winner is a good option as their only previous game went to 3 sets.

Update: A one sided first set went to Pervak. The main difference between the players was Goerges’ second serve. She didn’t win a single point on it. That improved in the second set  and he had chances to go ahead but Pervak got a late break.

Pervak won 6-1, 7-5.

 

 

21:00 – King v Oudin

Rankings are 90 and 82. They haven’t played before.

Oudin has struggled with her confidence for some time. This season she has held serve just 43% of the time.

King isn’t a whole lot better with just 52% of service games being won. She actually has worse return of serve stats than Oudin so we may well see more serves broken than held.

King is a very slight favourite at 1.80 and I’d expect her to win. Back her on Oudin’s serve. If King gets broken, back her at the higher price.

Update: The first set did have more breaks than holds and could have gone either way. King faded badly in the second set and Oudin won 6-4, 6-1.

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