Monterrey Open – Wednesday

21:00 – Zaklavova Strycova v Hercog

Rankings are 53 and 62. Head to heads are 1-0 to Hercog.

I underestimated Hercog yesterday thinking she couldn’t beat Kerber on a hard court. She did so easily in straights sets. Today she is up against a player who is only just above her in the rankings and who she beat last year on a hard court 6-3, 6-0.

Yet Z S is favourite on betfair at 1.55 .

Hercog holds serve 70% to Z S’s 63% although Z S has better stats on return of serve.

I think it has to be a lay to start with on Z S. If she plays like she did yesterday she is in with a great chance of taking the head to head to 2-0. If the first set is tight, lay the first set winner.

Update: Hercog won 6-4, 6-7, 6-2.



23:00 – Oudin v Pavlyuchenkova

Rankings are 82 and 19. Head to heads are 1-0 to Oudin.

Oudin was another player I underestimated yesterday. She was helped by some poor play from King and King’s 15 double faults.

These 2 players aren’t in the best of form although I’d expect Pavly to put up more resistance than King did. I’m sure she’s also keen to get a little revenge for the defeat in 2009 ( their only previous meeting ).

Pavly took 3 sets to get through her last match but she is ahead in most stats compared to Oudin. Oudin’s hold % is 45% for the last couple of months but Pavly holds 73%.

I am going with Pavlyuchenkova to take a tight match. Back Pavly on Oudin’s serve. If Oudin gets broken early her fragile confidence will crumble. If Oudin takes the first set lay her in the second. If Pavly take the first I’d expect it to be a straight sets win.

Update: Pavly won 6-2, 7-6.

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