Oz Open – Semi Final, Ferrer v Murray

08:30 – Ferrer v Murray

Rankings are 7 and 5. Head to heads are 3-2 to Ferrer but on hard courts Murray leads 2-0.

Ferrer will be on a high after beating Nadal even though his fellow Spaniard was  inured. He has never beaten Murray on a hard court but we know he will fight all the way.

Murray has had a good tournament so far. He has held serve 90% of the time and his first serve percentage is higher than normal at almost 60%. However we have become used to Murray leading us to believe he has a chance to win and then his intensity drops. The danger for Murray is that now that Federer is out he might see his name on the trophy already.

Ferrer can struggle against the top players if his serve isn’t firing well. However this week the serve has been excellent.  I don’t see this being a walkover.

Murray starts at 1.27 which looks low. The head to head on hard courts suggests Murray is a strong favourite. He also isn’t new to this situation as he was the losing finalist last year.

When Murray has problems they are often in his head and I think he will be thinking ahead to the final. Ferrer on the other hand will be fighting for the next point and could catch Murray napping in the early games.

A lay of Murray from the start is a good opening trade  as it should be a close set. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Muray broken in the first few games.

However I have to go with Murray to reach the final again.

Update: This was a fantastic match to watch. Murray had the nerves at the start although it was very close. Ferrer took the set. Murray came back and broke straight away at the start of the second but, as had happened in the first set,  he wasn’t able to back the break up with a hold. The set went to a tie break which Murray took easily. The third was one way traffic and went to Murray. The fourth was again very tight and they ended up in a tie break. Murray held his nerve to take the match and join Djokovic in the Final.

Murray won  4-6, 7-6, 6-1, 7-6.

    Trading Guide