04:00 – Dolgopolov v Murray
Rankings are 46 and 5. Head to heads are 1-0 to Murray.
Dolgopolov beat Soderling in 5 sets although the Swede was carrying an injury. All credit to Dolgopolov though for taking his chance.
The starting price on Murray is 1.12 which was about the same as Soderling’s SP but Murray is in impressive form. He has a better game to frustrate Dolgo. Murray is one of the best defensive players around and will chase anything and everything. I think Dolgopolov will have to try to hit better and better winners to get past Murray’s racquet and this will lead to mistakes.
However it would take a brave man to predict this will be a staight sets win for Murray. Dolgopolov unusual style can make him awkward to play and in his current form if Murray’s level drops he is capable of taking a set.
At 1.12 the only option is a lay of Murray. We can hope that Dolgo takes the opening set. Murray is due a bad set.
I don’t see Murray losing in a best of 5 setter so if Dolgo takes the first set, back Murray.
08:30 – Nadal v Ferrer
Rankings are 1 and 7. Head to heads are 12-3 to Nadal who has won their last 8 matches.
Nadal said his match against Cilic was his best of the tournament and that physically he felt “perfect”.
We saw at the ATP finals that even though Ferrer is in the form of his life he can’t quite live with the very top players. David is another player who will chase for every ball. This can frustrate most players but Nadal just uses that to run him around the court to sap his energy.
In the last 2 years in their 6 matches Ferrer hasn’t managed to win a single set. Our best hope is to lay Nadal and hope to back at a higher price if Ferrer breaks.
Alternatively you could back Nadal in the set betting market. Nadal 3-0 is currently available at 1.87. Green up when he wins the first set.