Tsonga v Federer:
Head to heads are 5-3 to Federer. In 2011 Fed leads 3-2.
Federer didn’t play particularly well against Monaco in the quarter final. Sometimes he looks almost bored against the lower players and only gets interested against top ranked players or if he is in trouble in a match. Against Berdych he could have felt he had something to prove as 3 out of 4 of their recent matches had not gone his way. He looked sharper in the semi final and was always in control.
Tsonga looked the better player in the first 2 or 3 games of his semi final with Isner but it was isner who broke first. Having lost the first set Tsonga’s serve improved in the second set and he was able to take the next 2 sets on tie breaks.
Federer has won 16 of his last 17 matches with the loss coming to Djokovic.
In Tsonga’s last 7 matches that went to three sets, in 6 of them if he lost the first set he won the match and if he won the first set he lost the match. Second sets seem key to his success as in 14 of his last 15 matches winning the second set would mean winning the match.
So we have Federer in great form and Tsonga in front of his home fans. Tsonga can’t afford a slow start but when motivated Fed usually starts very quickly. Whilst I think 3 sets are a possibility I have to go with Federer to take the title. Assuming they play at similar standards to the semi finals he has the edge. It should be a great match though.
Update: The first set was a little embarrassing for Tsonga but he had his chances in the second.
Federer won 6-1, 7-6.