Paris Masters 2012 – Monday

Kevin Anderson had his chances to beat Del Potro in their quarter final last week. He took the opening set as Del Potro was struggling with a back problem but as the Argentinian started to get back into the match in set 2 Anderson still had his chances. A tie break later Del Potro was in control and easily took the third set. How will that match affect Anderson? He doesn’t come across as being one of the smarter tennis players and let’s face it there isn’t a lot of competition for that crown. Does he think that he almost beat the eventual champion or does he see it as a missed opportunity and beat himself up a little?

Today’s opponent Bellucci  has been in great form reaching the Final of the Kremlin Cup ( and blowing two chances to serve for the title). Last week he narrowly lost to Federer 5-7 in the third set.

The surface in Paris is usually very fast but both have been serving well so no real advantage. Anderson defends 2nd round points whereas Bellucci lost in the first round last year. This should be a close one but I am going for Bellucci who can add a few points to his total and end the year on a high with a win today.

Update: Bellucci wasn’t really interested. Anderson won 6-2, 6-1.

 

Granollers wasn’t able to defend his title last week and was almost humiliated by Dolgopolov when a double bagel looked a possibility. The Spaniard had treatment on an arm injury/strain. After his title win last year he went o Paris and retired in the first round. He has already qualified for the World Tour Finals in the doubles and I see no reason for him to put much effort in this week so he can be fit and rested for London.

Youzhny is too low to lump on at 1.27 but you never know we might get a spike to 1.40 or better in the opening games.

Update: Youzhny went a break down giving us the higher price. He immediately broke back. Everything going to plan. He was then broken again and looked like he was a little bored out there.  He had chances to break back but didn’t take them. In the second set he was broken in the first game and broke straight back. However that was the last time he would break the Spaniard who had the Davis Cup captain watching his performance.

Granollers won 6-4, 6-3.

 

Gilles Simon was 10th seed last year but lost in the second round. Baghdatis didn’t play Paris last year. He retired in his last match which was against Tsonga with a groin strain.

The French usually perform well on home soil but based on recent form I would favour Baghdatis to come through this one. They haven’t played for almost 3 years but Baggy won that match in straight sets. The only time Simon has beaten him was in France but it was in 2007 and not really relevent to today’s match.

The downsides for picking Baghdatis are that groin strain, the fact that he has no points to defend and also the birth of his daughter last week which must be a distraction when preparing for his last event of the season. Surely he just wants to get home to his new wife and baby?

Simon started well against Granollers last week but faded towards the end of the first set. Even so I think that all things considered a Simon win is more likely today. He starts at 1.75 and I will have part stake on him from the start. I’ll look to top up if his price goes above evens.

Update: Simon faced a break point in the very first game of the match but managed to hold. The players exchanged breaks in the middle of the set but a late break gave the set to Simon. He broke twice in set 2 to take the match.

Simon won 7-5, 6-1.

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