Paris Masters – Thursday

12:30 – Melzer v Ferrer

Rankings are 12 and 7. Head to heads are 3-1 to Ferrer. Surprisingly Melzer’s only win came on clay at this year’s French Open.

These two players have won the last 2 tournaments with Melzer winning his home tournament in Austria and Ferrer winning at home In Valencia last week ( who says home advantage doesn’t help?)

A tough match to call. Over the last month they have held serve 88% and 89% but Melzer said yesterday that his elbow injury is ok but he isn’t able to serve at 100%.

Melzer didn’t look too motivated in his match against Giraldo although he didn’t need to play at the top of his game to win that one. He didn’t look comfortable though and was getting irritated by some of the umpires decisions.

Ferrer really should have beaten Fognini in straight sets but perhaps took the win for granted and lost the first set. He won the third in a tie break. Ferrer will always fight to the end. Melzer can be the same but has games where he just doesn’t seem too bothered.

Today I am going with the Spaniard as I have concerns over Melzer’s serve and motivation this week.

Back Ferrer on serve although be careful in the early games while the prices are around evens as a break will bring a huge move in price that you won’t want to be on the wrong side of. Reduced stakes are usually a good idea when trading around evens.

 

 

15:30 – Wawrinka v Soderling

Rankings are 22 and 5. Head to heads are 2-2.

Both men are in great form although there is a slight concern over Wawrinka’s shoulder that he was given pain killers for in his match yesterday.

Over the last month they have held serve 84% and 92%. They have had a few tie breaks in the past and I expect at least 1 today.

They both save a high percentage of break point chances against them ( 77% / 69% ).

Both players are good on return of serve so this should be a tight match. I am going with Soderling as his serve seems to be in the groove at the moment and Wawrinka will find it hard to keep up, especially if in pain.

Back Soderling or both on serve.

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