Federer v Berdych:
Federer is the only one from the top 4 seeds to make it through the quarter finals. Even he had more of a struggle than expected when Monaco took an early lead in the second set.
Berdych was able to take advantage of an off day from Murray although their match could easily have gone either way.
Heads to heads are 9-4 in Federer’s favour but Berdych has won 3 or their last 4 matches.
As I have said before the players are at the end of a long season and we have seen some unexpected results.
Federer was below his best against Monaco with a lot more unforced errors than we expect to see from him.
Berdych actually played pretty well against Murray but wasted so many break points. He got tight in the big points which also saw him struggling frequently to hold his own serve.
Federer starts at 1.35 and as I see thhis one being very close and also taking the results of their last few matches I think that price is too low. I wouldn’t be at all surprrised to see Berdych reach the final.
I will be laying Federer at the start because if the first set is close the market will start to correct itself. A break from Berdych would be a nice bonus 😉
Update: Federer upped his game in this one and always lookd in control.
Federer won 6-4, 6-3.
Tsonga v Isner:
They have only played once before which was 2 years ago and Isner won in 3 sets.
Tsonga probably wouldn’t have been in the semi’s if Djokovic had been fit. He has already qualified for the World Finals so there is little pressure on him today.
Isner’s form has steadily improved as the week has gone on and was too strong for Ferrer. His serve was a little more consistent and was able to rescue him from several sticky situations.
In a battle of serves Isner was always going to have the edge over Ferrer. Today he faces a different type of opponent. Tsonga also has the big serve but isn’t as good a returner as Ferrer. Tsonga prefers to keep the points shorter.
Their previous match was in Isner’s back yard. This time its in Tsonga’s arrière-cour and that will be the difference.
Hard to believe we won’t have at least 1 tie break and 3 sets are likely but Tsonga is my pick to win.
Update: Tsonga was struggling with his serve in the first set and Isner was able to break and held on for the set.
After that it was much tighter and the 2nd and 3rd sets both went to tie break.
Tsonga won 3-6, 7-6, 7-6.