15:00 – Korolev v De Bakker
Rankings are 73 and 53. They haven’t played before.
Korolev has yet to lose a set this week although he was 3-0 down in the second set against Marchenko and came back to win.
I didn’t expect De Bakker to get past Mayer in the last round but he came through a tight match to win in 3 sets. That suggests that he isn’t looking to take a rest before the US Open next week and therefore makes him a strong favourite to take this match. It would have been no disgrace to lose to Mayer.
He holds serve 90% of the time and hits 62% of first serves in. Korolev holds serve 73% and hits just 55% of first serves in.
Korolev creates a lot more break point chances but De Bakker converts a higher percentage of them (47%).
The form player is definately De Bakker. If liquidity looks ok during the games then back him on serve.
Update: De Bakker won 6-4, 6-3.
18:00 – Kirilenko v Safina
Rankings are 25 and 59. Head to heads are 2-1 to Safina.
Safina had to work hard in her last match against Hantuchova with both sets going to tie breaks. She also had a tight three setter in her other match.
Kirilenko had an easier task against Bacsinszky who didn’t put up much resistance. She had a good win over Vesnina which went to three sets.
Safina has had a tough time with injury over recent months and her form has been poor. She seems to be finding some of her form that she showed as world number 1.
Over the last month Kirilenko has held serve 76% of the time compared to 59% from Safina. Stats on return are almost identical.
This looks like a three setter to me. I’d have to give a slight edge to Kirilenko.
Scalping should work well. Also 15-40 opportunities can be taken.
Update: Kirilenko won 6-3, 6-3.