This event has been ruined by rain. Players have had to play more than one match in a day so the outcomes have been more unpredictable than normal. Also the number of top players who have either withdrawn or tanked their matches has introduced a great deal of extra uncertainty into the minds of traders. Obviously the shrewd trader has had a lot of opportunities this week. Ones than stand out are the double bagel of Ivanovic and Li Na’s destruction of Radwanska last night.
Today’s matches are not overlly inspiring and the prospect of sitting up into the small hours waiting for the rain to stop. We do have a lot of games in Cincinnati. There are a couple of first rounds matches but the majority are qualifiers but all are covered by Betfair. Hopefully we will see enough liquidity to make them suitable for swing trades.
Gasquet has been in excellent form this week although has had periods during most of his matches where his shot selection thought process seemed to fail. However he has beaten Berdych, Fish and Isner which isn’t a bad list of scalps by anyone’s standards.
Gasquet’s only win over Djokovic came in the World Tour Finals of 2007. Since then they have played 4 times and Gasquet hasn’t won a set in any of those matches.
Djokovic breezed past Tomic. Querrey put up a little more resistance but also lost in straight sets. Tommy (The Bionic Man) Haas was finally defeated but still managed to take a set from the Serb. That is the only set that Djokovic has lost as Tipsarevic was soundly beaten in the semi final.
Djokovic’s price of 1.16 is low. An in form Gasquet is capable of keeping the first set close. Their last 2 matches had sets that ended with just a single break between the players. Gasquet must serve at his very best and in particular needs to come up with better second serves than we have seen from him this week. Djokovic is one player you don’t want to send a weak second serve to.
I will be waiting for a higher price on Djokovic as long as the match starts before midnight.
In Montreal Wozniacki pulled the old MTO trick on Lepchenko and looked like she wasn’t going to be able to move well enough to complete the match. Not only did she win that match from a set down but then beat Wozniack in straight sets a few hours later.
Today she starts as underdog agasinst Kvitova. Head to heads are 3-3 although Kvitova has won their last 2 matches which were both in 2011.
Kvitova has had the tougher draw this week. She lost the opening set of her first match against Pervak but hasn’t lost a set since. She hasn’t really been affected by the rain and this gives her an advantage.
This isn’t a match to get involved from the start. Kvitova is too low to back and as Wozniacki is potentially fatigued and had her “injury” yesterday if we look to lay Kvitova it needs to be as low as possible and as early as possible.
I expect Kvitova to go through to the final.
Safarova has surprised a few people this week. She has beaten both Stosur and Vinci in straight sets. Today she meets an opponent who has beaten Errani and Radwanska in straight sets. Li Na will be too strong for Safarova today but I want a higher price than 1.34 . I may be disappointed but I want at least 1.50 before backing Li.