Rogers Cup – Wednesday

18:00 – Almagro v Llodra

Rankings are 16 and 35. Head to heads are 1-0 to Llodra.

Almagro took 3 sets to get past Marchenko in the last round. He probably needed that match to help him adjust to the  hard courts although the courts in Toronto aren’t the fastest of “fast” courts. He has been in great form on  the clay and will be looking to do well in the lead up to the US Open.

Llodra came through the last round due to an injury to Tipsarevic who suffered a fall in the first set. Tipsarevic then retired. That will have helped Llodra’s  energy levels.

Both men serve well and over the last 3 months have held serve 85% and 86% respectively.

Llodra’s game is perhaps more suited to the hard courts but Almagro is the form player. I would have expected Tipsarevic to have beaten Llodra if he hadn’t been injured.

Back Almagro on serve. Llodra can also be backed on serve as I expect a very tight first set.

Update: It was a tight first set but Llodra ran away with the second.

Llodra won 7-6, 6-2.

 

 

 

20:00 – De Bakker v Monfils

Rankings are 46 and 18. head to heads are 1-1.

Monfils was less than impressive yesterday needing a tie break to get past Devvarman in the opening set.

De Bakker played a solid enough match against Lopez and was particularly good on serve.

Monfils starts this match as favourite on Betfair. His price of 1.66 doesn’t fit with his performance yesterday. Small flashes of brilliance aren’t enough to sustain a run of victories.

De Bakker has been serving exceptionally well and over the last 3 months has held serve 91% of the time. Monfils will soon get frustrated if he can’t find a way through the Dutchman’s game and could go into meltdown.

Monfils has held 81% of his service games but can make simple errors if the pressure is on him constantly.

I expect De Bakker to come through this. I saw nothing in the last round to convince me that this will be anything but a typical Monfils performance and I can’t bring myself to put money on him.

Back De Bakker on serve or lay Monfils from the start.

Update: Monfils started much better in this match although with De Bakker serving well a lay of Monfils would have brought a small profit opportunity with his price rising briefly to around 2.00 .

However this was an improved Monfils and he took a very tight match 7-5, 6-3.

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