Saturday 2nd March 2013

Berdych had a great win over Federer yesterday. His reward is a Final appearance against Djokovic. Djokovic looked like he was going to be taken to a third set when Del Potro took a 3-0 lead in set 2. The world number 1 broke back and then broke again but Del Potro levelled to take the set to a tie break. Djokovic took that tie break.

Djokovic has a scary 12-1 lead in the head to heads. He has won their last 10 matches. They have played 4 times since the start of 2012. Berdych has won 2 sets. One on the clay in Monte Carlo and one in the Australian Open in January.

Berdych’s form is as good as we have seen from him. Too often he gets into good positions only to choke them away or maybe just doesn’t show up in the big matches but this season he seems to have found a little extra mental strength.

The Betfair market gives him virtually no chance of winning as Djokovic starts at 1.16 . Berdych’s serve can keep him in the match but whereas he got away with a few poor service games against Federer he won’t have that luxury against Djokovic.

The head to head record has to play on his mind as will his loss to Tsonga in their recent final. He will need to play virtually faultless tennis to take the title. I think he will take this to 3 sets but I don’t see him being able to get the win.

1.16 obviously has to be a lay and lets hope Berdych can survive to a tie break in the first set.

 

Errani last lost to Suarez Navarro on clay in 2006. Today they meet on the clay again in the final in Mexico.

Errani starts at 1.46 . Their hard court matches have been close but the last time they played on the dirt was in Barcelona last year. Errani won 6-1, 6-2. I think there’s a good chance that Errani trades higher in the opening set so will be looking for 1.7 or better before backing her.

 

In Acapulco we have Nadal and Ferrer in the final. Nadal has stuck to clay events to get himself back towards match fitness. He, understandably, made a slow start by his standards and lost in the final in Chile. The following week he was taken to 3 sets in a couple of matches but went on to win the title. This week he has beaten everyone in straight sets including Almagro in the semi final.

Ferrer hadn’t lost a set this week until Fognini took him to 3 sets in their semi final. Ferrer is known for his fitness and stamina yet he looked tired after his match with Fognini.

Nadal leads the head to heads 17-5 and the only time Ferrer beat him on clay was in their first meeting back in 2004.

As usual I am looking for a higher back price than Nadal’s SP of 1.53 and I expect him to get the win in 2 tight sets or perhaps a 3 setter. Ferrer has won 4 sets against Nadal including the win in 2004.

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